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Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday – 10:30pm ET)
After falling short at the goal line in Atlanta and opening up the season with a loss to Auburn, Baylor has found its way to 3-1. Part of that is the competition, with Prairie View and Louisiana Tech on the schedule, but the Bears won their Big 12 opener at home on Saturday.
That said, it was a sloppy game, and Colorado made plenty of silly mistakes that prevented the game from being much closer. Colorado was struggling enough that it also made a QB change at halftime. The Baylor offense has not been sharp against Power Four competition, and DJ Lagway still does not look healthy. The Florida transfer injured his ankle in the opener against the Tigers in Atlanta, and last week was 19-for-39 throwing the ball against a weak Colorado defense.
We’ve seen almost all good things from Arizona State in the early going. There was a lot of turnover with this team, but Kenny Dillingham liked the talent he brought in, specifically the explosive weapons on offense. I don’t want to put much, if any, stock into FCS games, but the Sun Devils hung 70 in their opener in much smoother fashion than when Baylor faced similar competition.
Arizona State’s loss at Texas A&M was tilted by a very misleading final score, in a game that the Sun Devils out-gained the Aggies by more than 100 yards. They won their Big 12 opener over Kansas a couple weeks ago in England, and then came home to a bye. So I think Arizona State enters this one with multiple key edges — an early season bye, a healthy QB, the better head coach and the more explosive offense.
Tie all that together with home field advantage for a night game, and I’ll lay the poitnts with the Sun Devils.
CFB Pick: Arizona State -3.5 (-115)
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