David Montgomery or Woody Marks Start or Sit Advice for Week 4
The Houston Texans are 0-3 to start the season for the second straight year, and they’ll be looking to bounce back in a tough matchup this week at home against the Dallas Cowboys, who are 1-2 after losing in Rio last Sunday. Only two teams have been able to come back from an 0-3 start to make the playoffs since 2000, and it was the Texans both times, last year and in 2018. They’ll try to start that turnaround again this year with a win this week. In the last two games, both running backs David Montgomery and Woody Marks have had disappointing games, so can you start either one for your fantasy football team this week? Let’s take a look at what to expect from both Montgomery and Marks this week against Dallas.
In Week 1, Montgomery went off for 28.9 FPTS in his debut, taking 20 carries for 60 yards and adding two catches for 19 more yards and finding the end zone three times. He played 49% of the snaps in that game with Marks getting more snaps but only nine carries for 42 yards and a reception that went for a loss of two yards to finish with 5.0 FPTS.
In Week 2, Marks was a little better with 8.5 FPTS but managed only eight yards on his eight carries and six yards on his five catches. Those five catches helped him be more productive than Montgomery, though, who only had 4.4 FPTS with 10 yards on six carries and two catches for 14 yards.
Things didn’t get much better in Week 3, as Montgomery ended up with 6.8 FPTS and Marks posted 9.1 FPTS. Marks big boost in that. matchup with the Colts was a one-yard rushing touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Even though Marks got into the end zone for the first time, he actually played a smaller snap share with 33% of snaps while Montgomery played 67%, the most lopsided work share of the three games.
Neither running back has been effective on the ground, especially in the last two weeks, although both have added decent yards through the air. The offensive line in Houston is a real concern, and the coaching staff has asked C.J. Stroud to throw the ball a lot despite shaky protection, along with the issues in the run game.
The Cowboys are a favorable matchup, though, and have allowed over 100 rushing yards to running backs in each of the three games they have played. They gave up two rushing scores to Derrick Henry last week and two touchdowns to Giants’ RBs in Week 1. In their three games, they have allowed the fourth-most FPTS to RBs in the NFL, which could set the stage for either or both running backs to have a breakout game.
Both players are definitely high-risk given the team’s struggles on offense, but the team could be about to shift things and lean more heavily on Woody Marks. Reports earlier this week from ESPN’s Dan Graziano were that his sense was that Marks has been more explosive and will get more work going forward.
He did struggle near the goal line last year, so he still could lose work near the end zone to Montgomery if that is an issue, since the veteran has proven he can finish runs near the end zone. However, Marks did get the call for the one-yard run in cruch time last week and converted the touchdown.
The Texans will also get star WR Nico Collins back this week, which will help the overall offense, but could cost the running backs red zone opportunities.
If at all possible, it’s best to avoid this situation until the timeshare is firmly one way or the other. However, if you have to start one or the other, I would actually lean towards Marks, since he has more momentum and hype and has outscored Montgomery each of the last two weeks.
Marks is also intriguing as a contrarian value play in DFS contests, especially as a differentiator in tournaments like the NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] this week. Marks is only $4,700, and there’s a better-than-zero chance that he’ll have a breakout game and get all the work against Dallas. He’s definitely still high-risk, but there is potential upside to consider as well.
