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Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
Florida is 3-0 to the over so far against FBS competition, and scored 52 points in its FCS game against Campbell. Both the Gators and Tigers have been playing with pace, and they average nearly 1,000 yards of combined offense per game. Florida’s offense is the slower of the two, but they get explosive plays and average 0.76 points per play through four games. I like that Missouri plays at a top-25 pace in the underdog role here, so the Tigers should be rushing to keep up with one of the nation’s top offenses.
Florida’s offense has been machine-like during this 4-0 start, cashing overs by 16.5 points per game. The Gators have finished with 66 points vs. FAU, 52 vs. Campbell, 44 at Auburn and an impressive 52 in last week’s top-10 win over Ole Miss. That’s 53.5 PPG with no fewer than 44 points in any game. Florida is also averaging 48 points in SEC play, against legit competition.
I don’t see this Florida offense slowing down anytime soon, particularly against an untested Missouri team. The Tigers got their first real test last week at Mississippi State, and despite a late lead, failed yet again in a ranked game. They gave up 31 points to the Bulldogs, after giving up 21 points to Kansas — the other games came against Troy and an FCS game.
Missouri just has to do its part at home here to be somewhat competitive, while the Gators do the heavy lifting.
CFB Pick: OVER 56.5 (-112)
