The biggest storyline in MLB down the stretch of September was the battle for the crown in the AL Central between the White Sox and the Guardians — and this is why.
Thanks to pulling out the division by a single win, Cleveland not only guaranteed itself home field advantage in the ALDS, but the time off to properly set its postseason rotation. Meanwhile, the White Sox appear to be staring down the barrel of essentially their third straight bullpen game to begin the playoffs.
This is the first contest of a full Saturday slate, with first pitch expected just past 1:00 p.m. ET by Lake Erie. Let’s dive into this Game 1 tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Guardians Game 1 prediction, preview
The Guardians’ biggest edge on the White Sox in this series is, without question, its pitching staff. That all starts with Parker Messick, who is both a Rookie of the Year and Cy Young candidate in 2026. Among qualified American League pitchers, Messick’s 2.56 ERA was only bested by Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease — that’s some pretty impressive company. While the left-hander doesn’t possess the raw stuff that either of those gentlemen bring to the table, Messick gets by on deception, command and an elite ability to suppress loud contact. To wit, the 25-year-old ranked in the 80th percentile or better in walk rate (6.6%), opponent barrel rate (5.0%) and opponent hard hit rate (34.3%). Put it all together, and you’re left with an ace talent who has had a lot of success against Chicago in his four prior matchups this season.
The White Sox will counter with a southpaw phenom of their own, though one that lacks Messick’s track record at the MLB level. Just as he did in Game 1 of the Wild Card series, Hagen Smith will serve as the opener for Chicago in Game 1 of the ALDS. The fifth-overall pick out of Arkansas in the 2024 draft, Smith spent a majority of 2026 at Triple-A, making 14 starts and pitching 58.1 innings. Some quick math will probably tell you that Smith isn’t fully stretched out, though the three scoreless innings he tossed on Tuesday did match a career-high with the White Sox. The rookie’s stuff is electric, even if he doesn’t always know where it’s going. Across his 28.0 regular season innings in the big leagues, Smith managed a 37.3% strikeout rate, but also a massive 14.5% walk rate. In any event, a 1.29 ERA and a 2.35 FIP are quite encouraging.
Where Chicago goes after Smith is anyone’s guess. Sean Burke is likely unavailable after throwing 72 pitches during the decisive Game 2 on Wednesday, but Davis Martin is fully rested and ready to go. Martin struggled in June, July and August, but the right-hander got things back on track in September, registering a 1.71 ERA over 21.0 innings. That included tossing 5.1 frames versus the Guardians on September 15 with only one earned run conceded, though it should be noted that Martin didn’t strike out a single batter in that outing. Not exactly a sign of dominance.
An area where the White Sox seemingly have an advantage over the Guardians is run production. No AL squad plated more runs over the final two weeks of the regular season (81), and the team’s bats stayed hot against the Astros, even knocking Hunter Brown out of his Game 2 start in the first inning. On the whole, Chicago is a streaky lineup filled with power top-to-bottom. In 2026, the White Sox ranked fifth in baseball in both home runs (211) and ISO (.170). Anyone can leave the park at any time, which means they’re never out of a game.
Conversely, Cleveland sat 27th in ISO (.142), 27th in expected wOBA (.305) and 23rd in wRC+ (97). Much like the incarnations of the Guardians we’ve seen in postseasons past, this is not a club that’s going to win many barnburners. The elephant in the room — and maybe the biggest X-factor in this series — is Jose Ramirez. Usually a perennial MVP candidate, the 34-year-old has not looked like himself since returning for a mid-year hand injury. In September, Ramirez slashed .198/.237/.264 wit a 39 wRC+ in 97 plate appearances. If he doesn’t get going at all, Cleveland might be in a bit of trouble.
White Sox vs. Guardians Game 1 pick, best bet
Best Bet: NRFI (-145)
As mentioned above, Hagen Smith posted a 1.29 ERA and a 37.3% strikeout rate as a reliever in the regular season. This is like having a set-up man pitch the first inning. On the other side, Parker Messick has unsurprisingly been amazing to start games in 2026, maintaining a 1.79 ERA his first time through an opposing order. That includes holding opponents to a microscopic .232 wOBA.
Strong Lean: Randal Grichuk 1+ Hit (-167)
I’m not the biggest subscriber to BvP numbers, but Grichuk was 5-for-12 (.417) off Messick during the regular season with two doubles and a triple. Messick isn’t the only LHP to feel this pain, either. Grichuk hit .327 with a 181 wRC+ off southpaws in 2026 — the third-highest qualified mark in the league.
