Through three weeks of the NFL season, the Las Vegas Raiders have truly impressed. They’re a perfect 3-0, but they now face their most difficult test yet as they host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. As such, this AFC West showdown will serve as a measuring stick to tell us whether these Raiders are for real or not – and potentially have a big impact in the division race.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET in Las Vegas. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Chiefs vs. Raiders in NFL Week 4.
Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction, preview
The Chiefs look like their old selves at 3-0, downing both the Broncos and Colts before an easier win over the Dolphins last week. Perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise that they’re rolling again, but it’s become clear last season was an exception to the norm.
They’re seventh in scoring with 88 points and have put up at least 24 in all three of their games. The offense is humming with Eric Bieniemy back as the coordinator – Kanas City ranks sixth in EPA/play, is efficient both through the air and on the ground, and sits fourth in explosive-play rate. Kenneth Walker III has become the heartbeat of the offense with 442 scrimmage yards and four total touchdowns, which both rank fourth among all NFL players. Patrick Mahomes has been excellent in his return from injury with 812 passing yards and seven touchdowns to two interceptions, ranking ninth in EPA/dropback. What’s surprising is that Travis Kelce leads the team in receiving at age 36 with 14 grabs for 231 yards and two scores, but Rashee Rice is close behind with 190 yards and one touchdown. Things are simply working right now, and the defense has impressed as well. That unit ranks third with 50 points allowed and falls seventh in EPA/play allowed to opponents. The Chiefs have just three sacks, but they’re ninth in pressure rate and have forced four turnovers.
The Raiders weren’t supposed to get this good this quickly, but after three weeks, Klint Kubiak’s squad is unbeaten. They downed the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints, so while the schedule hasn’t been terribly hard, it hasn’t been a cakewalk, either.
Las Vegas’ numbers are rather surprising. The offense hasn’t been stellar in terms of efficiency at 17th in EPA/play; the run game is struggling even with Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, having produced just 206 yards on 63 carries. However, the passing attack comes in at 11th in EPA/dropback behind impressive play from Kirk Cousins. The veteran has 661 passing yards and is tied for the NFL lead with nine touchdowns, though he’s tossed three picks, so it’s possible we won’t see No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza for quite some time. Brock Bowers made his season debut last week with 10 receptions for 116 yards and a score, so the star tight end’s return from injury provides a major boost to the overall outlook. However, it’s the defense that really stands out. After a busy offseason with lots of roster shuffling, the Raiders seem to have unlocked something. They’ve allowed 54 points, eighth fewest in the league, but that’s not the best part. They rank second in EPA/play allowed – a result of top-five marks in defensive EPA/dropback and EPA/rush. Las Vegas also has seven turnovers with 10 sacks, the latter of which is tied for fourth most.
Chiefs vs. Raiders pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as a -4.5 road favorite with -218 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Raiders are a +180 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 47.5 combined points.
This matchup should be a measuring stick for Las Vegas. Stick around to cover the spread or maybe even win outright, and suddenly the Raiders will be in real conversations to compete for a playoff spot ahead of schedule. They’ve been tested to an extent, but are yet to face a team of Kansas City’s caliber. The offense has some of the talent necessary to compete with Mahomes and Walker, but the big question marks are whether Cousins’ play will hold up and if Jeanty can begin to step up his efficiency. The quarterback has been excellent especially in light of expectations, but Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is one of the toughest in the NFL to crack. Likewise, Jeanty now faces a quality run-stopping unit with an average of just 3.27 YPC and an EPA/attempt that ranks 42nd in the league.
On the flip side, one can argue that the Raiders’ defense may be difficult for the Chiefs to handle. They’re putting pressure on quarterbacks and coming up with turnovers, but it’s possible their own numbers are inflated after facing an NFL-worst Dolphins team and a Chargers group that’s struggled to string anything together offensively. Las Vegas just allowed 27 points to a respectable Saints attack and the matchup this week is far more difficult.
All in all, the Chiefs should win this game in hand. Realistically, the Raiders could cover at home, but expecting them to put up a significant fight in the hardest battle of his new era may be setting the bar too high for the moment. This probably won’t be a blowout, but it’s likely to be settled by a wider margin than the spread implies – take the proven team in times like these.
