Las Vegas hosts the second of three straight intermediate tracks in the Chase. Kyle Larson carries a 26-point lead after his Kansas win, with Denny Hamlin’s track history here making him a live threat to close it.
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NASCAR Best Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas
Top DraftKings Picks for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas
- Kyle Larson ($11,500) — Las Vegas has been one of his best tracks over the last two years, a win in 2024 followed by a runner-up finish last fall. His average finish across his last five starts here is 6.0, easily the best mark in this field, and his average running position of 6.2 backs it up. That stat measures where a car actually ran during the race, not just where it crossed the line, and Larson’s number says this wasn’t a fluke.
- Denny Hamlin ($11,000) — This track has been kind to him lately. He’s won two of his last three Cup races here, including this year’s spring race and last fall’s South Point 400. No one else in this field can match that kind of recent Vegas dominance, even at the top of the salary chart.
- Christopher Bell ($10,700) — His last three trips to Vegas have produced finishes of fourth, third and second, each one better than the last. That kind of trajectory, at a salary nearly $800 below Larson’s, makes him one of the stronger values near the top of the slate.
- Alex Bowman ($7,300) — Hendrick Motorsports has three cars capable of winning this race, and Bowman might be the quietest of them. His average finish over his last four Vegas starts is 9.2, nearly matching Larson’s number, yet he costs more than $4,000 less. He hasn’t finished worse than 18th at this track since 2024.
- Joey Logano ($9,500) — A win in the 2024 South Point 400 sits on his record. His average finish of 9.2 over his last five Vegas starts ties Bowman for the best mark outside the top three, built on finishes of ninth, first, 15th, sixth and 15th across that stretch.
- William Byron ($9,200) — His average running position of 7.9 across his last five Vegas starts is the second-best mark in this field, trailing only Larson. He’s finished third or better in two of his last three trips here, and the speed has shown up even in the one result that didn’t.
- Ross Chastain ($7,100) — A fourth-place finish in 2024 and a fifth-place finish in 2025 both came at this track, and his average finish of 11.2 over his last five starts here is better than several drivers costing $2,000 more. His most recent trip was a quieter 17th, but the price still makes him worth a look.
- Tyler Reddick ($10,500) — His average running position of 5.8 over his last five Vegas starts is actually the best of anyone on this list, better than Larson’s own mark. The results haven’t matched it lately, and his average finish sits at 15.8 because of a 35th-place crash in the fall of 2024, but a track where he’s finished second twice makes him a threat to break out here.
- Chase Briscoe ($9,900) — A fourth-place finish in last fall’s South Point 400 followed an eighth-place run in this year’s spring race, and that upward trend is the most recent data point in his file. He’s eighth in the Chase standings and needs a week like that one to keep pace.
- Chase Elliott ($8,500) — Eight intermediate-track starts this season have produced an average finish of 14.4, well behind his average running position of 10.1. The gap suggests the speed has been better than the results. He has one intermediate win this year (Texas).
- Chris Buescher ($7,600) — An average finish of 17.0 across eight intermediate-track starts this season undersells an average running position of 13.2. Kansas was a step back. He finished 23rd there, but the underlying speed from the rest of the season hasn’t disappeared.
- Ty Gibbs ($8,900) — No one on this list has a better average running position at intermediate tracks this season than Gibbs’s 9.1 over eight starts, yet his average finish sits at 11.9 and he’s still without a win. Kansas fit the pattern. He ran well enough to finish better than the 17th he ended up with.
- Bubba Wallace ($8,200) — Eight intermediate starts this season have produced an average finish of 16.6 and no wins. A ninth-place finish at Kansas last week is the best result in that stretch, and it’s recent enough to matter.
- Daniel Suarez ($6,600) — His average finish over his last five Vegas starts is 10.8, tied with Bell for the best mark of anyone outside the top three. Suarez has an intermediate-track win this season. It was a rain-shortened win, but a win is a win, especially when it’s the Coca-Cola 600.
- Ryan Preece ($6,700) — An average finish of 18.1 across eight intermediate-track starts this season is the highest number on this list, yet a 10th-place finish at Kansas last week is more recent than any of that history. At $6,700, that alone earns him the last spot.
