The Kentucky Wildcats take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in an important SEC matchup in Week 5. The game kicks off at 4:15 p.m. ET on Saturday in Columbia, South Carolina.
The Gamecocks are listed as three-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 54.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this Week 5 matchup.
South Carolina vs. Kentucky Prediction, Preview
Kentucky Preview
Kentucky broke into the Top 25 after its big win over Texas A&M. However, as the Aggies got steamrolled by LSU the following week, that win looks a bit less significant. Kentucky was not able to hold up against elite SEC competition, losing 45-17 to Alabama. The Wildcats have opposite problems on their offense and defense. The Kentucky offense has been efficient in the run game, but has not thrown the ball well. Meanwhile, the Kentucky defense has defended the pass well, but has not been able to slow down the run. That makes for an interesting matchup against South Carolina.
South Carolina Preview
It has been a miserable two weeks for the Gamecocks, and both their season and the Shane Beamer era are now on the ropes. They have been able to move the ball on offense, but have made far too many mistakes. Defensively, they have serious problems in the secondary, giving up far too many explosive passing plays. The Gamecocks have run the ball brilliantly this season, with Matt Fuller emerging as a high-level SEC running back and LaNorris Sellers using his legs effectively. South Carolina will have a great home-field advantage in this game, but this is a must-win to keep the fanbase involved over the rest of the season.
South Carolina vs. Kentucky Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this game is for South Carolina to cover as three-point favorites. The Gamecocks have had far too many self-inflicted wounds over the past two weeks, but those are things that should positively regress to the mean at some point. South Carolina outgained Mississippi State two weeks ago but lost the turnover battle, which ended up being the difference in a seven-point loss. Last week, the Gamecocks were outplayed by Alabama, but the game should have been much closer than the score indicated. South Carolina put up 419 yards of offense against Alabama, but only translated that to 18 points.
South Carolina should be able to run the ball and control this game. The Gamecocks rank 12th in the nation in offensive EPA/rush and 21st in rushing success rate. Meanwhile, Kentucky ranks 64th in defensive EPA/rush and 84th in defensive rushing success rate. South Carolina can take the pressure off LaNorris Sellers and completely dominate on the ground. Meanwhile, Kentucky is not capable of taking advantage of South Carolina’s issues in the secondary the same way Kamario Taylor and Keelon Russell could.
While there is a new head coach in Lexington, Shane Beamer has dominated this matchup as of late. South Carolina has won four straight matchups against Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 15 points per game. They should make it five straight wins in this matchup.
