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Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies (Friday – 7pm ET)
Unique circumstances on Friday night in Blacksburg as we have two 4-0 teams from power conferences facing off. Neither are ranked in the AP Top-25, creating the first ever matchup between 4-0 power conference teams that are both unranked. So we should have both programs feeling a bit slighted at the moment.
Both teams have obviously handled business to this point, but I’d argue Virginia Tech has the slightly more impressive resume. Pitt mopped the floor with Miami OH and Bucknell at home, as you’d expect. The Panthers won and covered against a poor Syracuse team, and won a 12-7 grinder in the rain against UCF.
The Hokies also smashed inferior competition at home in VMI, and covered a closer test against Old Dominion. VT is off a two-game road trip, handling Maryland in a big night game, and pulling away late last week at Boston College. Points were at a premium in Chestnut Hill due to the storm in the Northeast, so I give the Hokies a pass on not dominating the scoreboard.
Meanwhile, Pitt has yet to play a road game this season. Last week we had the spread on this game with the Panthers as 5.5-point underdogs, which has dropped all the way inside of a field goal. Pitt is a solid squad, but this is a lot of love for a team that hasn’t proven itself on the road yet. This is sure to be a terrific home field advantage on Friday night for Virginia Tech.
Statistically, the Panthers have the edge in the game, per the numbers on Pick Six Previews. But some numbers on Virginia Tech jump out to me, particularly ranking No. 1 in negative play percentage on defense. This is a disruptive defense that will get pressure on a young quarterback and force some mistakes.
Mason Heintschel has put up numbers this season, but virtually all the damage came against Miami OH and Bucknell. In those two games, the Pitt QB combined for 856 passing yards and all 13 of his touchdown passes this season, completing over 75% of his passes. Against Syracuse and UCF, Heintschel combined for 335 passing yards, no touchdowns and an interception, completing less than 60% of his passes. Now on the road in a hostile environment against the best defense he’s faced, I expect him to struggle and make mistakes.
On the flip side, Ethan Grunkemeyer has been consistent, outside of playing in dreadful conditions last Saturday. He actually had his best game in the toughest test to date — completing nearly 80% of his passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns at Maryland. He’s yet to throw an interception this season.
Pitt does have a strong run defense, ranking fourth in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game. Tech has a solid RB duo to test it on Friday night. If the Hokies have success on the ground, that would be really encouraging. But even if they can just keep the defense honest, I trust Grunkemeyer more here as the veteran at home to make some big plays.
This number has come down too much for me at this point, and I’ll back Virginia Tech on the short moneyline at home under the lights on Friday night.
CFB Pick: Virginia Tech ML (-130)
