The NFL season is never over in Week 3; seven teams that have started 0-3 have turned it around to make the playoffs eventually, including the Houston Texans last season. At 1-2, the New England Patriots certainly aren’t doomed, but the manner of their defeats has not been pretty.
New England has had such a poor offense this season that opposing defenses have feasted, and it’ll travel straight into the belly of the beast in Week 4 with a matchup against the division-leading Buffalo Bills. The Bills haven’t exactly been an elite defensive team this season, but a date with the Patriots presents an opportunity for them to turn that around. It also makes Buffalo a potential low-cost D/ST option for fantasy managers.
Results and Usage
Buffalo has played a trio of pretty strong offenses so far. It opened its season with a clash against the Texans, winning a 36-31 thriller, before taking down the Detroit Lions, 41-31, and the Los Angeles Chargers, 24-16. While giving up 78 points in the first three weeks is never ideal — in fact, only 11 teams have conceded more so far — both Detroit and Houston finished in the top 13 in scoring last season, and both the Lions and the Chargers finished in the top 12 by total yards. While the Texans’ and Los Angeles’ offenses have both gotten off to slow starts in 2026, the Bills’ performance against them is justifiable given all the talent on each roster.
Buffalo will likely improve as it starts playing weaker offenses, and there have been some early signs of success. The Bills can be positive fantasy assets even while hemorrhaging points by picking up sacks, and they rank sixth in the league with nine so far in addition to generating pressure at the seventh-highest rate. Although Buffalo has only recorded one interception so far, it has defended 17 passes, tied for the fourth-most in the league, so it’s arguably unlucky not to have have recorded more picks.
Future Outlook
The Bills stand a good chance of turning their defense around against New England. The Patriots, despite having the second-highest scoring offense in the league in 2025 and adding wideout A.J. Brown, have scored the second-fewest points so far. Scoring only 10 points in Week 1 was defensible, given that they played against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the NFL’s most daunting venue; scoring only six on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3 was not, as good as Jacksonville has been since the start of November 2025.
New England’s issues start at the game’s most important position. MVP runner-up Drake Maye has been awful, throwing one touchdown pass and a league-leading six interceptions. While some of his picks can be chalked up to bad luck — he’s still had the fourth-lowest bad throw percentage in the league this season — most were the result of overly aggressive decisions. Per PFF, he leads the league in turnover-worthy plays and turnover-worthy play percentage. Maye has also taken the fourth-most sacks at the fourth-highest sack percentage, and he ranks seventh in allowed pressure. After leading the league in completion percentage over expectation in 2025, Maye ranks just 17th in that stat so far this season.
I’m not massively sold by the Patriots’ other skill position players, either. Rhamondre Stevenson, who had major ball security issues in 2024, has already fumbled once this season, and neither he nor TreVeyon Henderson has had a particularly efficient season. Brown suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1 and is on IR, and fellow new wideout Romeo Doubs ranks 101st of 107 qualified wideouts by PFF’s grades, coughing up a fumble in Week 2. The fact that Maye ranks 13th-to-last in completion percentage but has still completed passes at a rate 2.4 percentage points higher than expected underscores the weakness of his supporting cast.
I’m still not sure that the Bills quite rise into must-start territory, even against such a poor offense, given that they haven’t finished in the top 20 in PFF’s defensive grades since 2023. However, as long as Josh Allen can keep the chains moving and keep putting up points against New England’s defense, he should be able to force Maye to throw. The 24-year-old is still young enough and talented enough to turn it around, but when Maye has taken to the air this season, the results speak for themselves. Buffalo could be worth a start.
