The Big Ten schedule rolls on this afternoon with a battle between two historic programs. Michigan State (2-2) is entering a new era under the leadership of head coach Pat Fitzgerald. If the Spartans want to prove their program has turned a corner, taking care of business against a conference rival is a good start. Wisconsin (3-1) is in a similar spot, having just suffered a four-win 2025 campaign. However, the Badgers got a major boost last weekend during their road upset over Penn State. Can they sustain their newfound success during Saturday’s showdown at Camp Randall?
The Badgers are listed as ten-point favorites over the Spartans, with the total set at O/U 43.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Week 5 matchup.
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin prediction, preview
As has been the case for several years now, Michigan State’s offense leaves much to be desired. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is a work in progress. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; the sophomore has flashed some potential and, most importantly, tends to avoid interceptions. Still, he’s not what you’d call a gunslinger. Milivojevic is averaging just 187.0 passing yards per game. The Spartans were finding some success on the ground thanks to UConn transfer Camryn Edwards. Unfortunately, he suffered a season-ending knee injury during last week’s loss vs. Nebraska. In Edwards’ absence, the Spartans may opt for more of a committee approach at running back.
Opposing MSU’s dragged-out offense will be a physical, intimidating Badgers defense. Keep in mind, this group kept things close during the first half against #3 Notre Dame during the season opener. Last week, they held Penn State to just 233 yards of total offense. Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht only threw for 114 passing yards during that contest. None of this should come as much of a surprise, either. Wisconsin, in spite of its disappointing record, allowed the Big Ten’s seventh-fewest yards per game (323.5) last season. Quarterbacks are having a difficult time completing passes vs. the Badgers, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt.
As for Wisconsin’s offense, most of the scoring burden rests on the shoulders of Colton Joseph. The Old Dominion transfer is a true dual-threat, often looking more comfortable using his legs. He’s thrown for 987 yards, ran for 121 more, and scored 11 total touchdowns this season. The only caveat for the senior? He’s coughed up a conference-worst five interceptions. That includes handing out three picks during his last time out, against Penn State. Regardless, head coach Luke Fickell has options. Out of the backfield, the duo of Abu Sama and Darrion Dupree have combined for 324 rushing yards, three touchdowns and a whopping 6.2 yards per carry. Even if Sama (lower body) can’t play vs. MSU, there should be a strong presence on the ground. Wide receiver Tyrell Henry, once at Michigan State, leads the Badgers with 24 receptions and 307 receiving yards.
Edwards wasn’t the only big loss for the Spartans in Week 4. Linebacker Jordan Hall, the unofficial leader of this defense, was also pulled early against Nebraska. He’s doubtful to play with an ankle injury. To make matters worse, several depth pieces at the position are also questionable to play. A banged up front seven doesn’t inspire much confidence against a Wisconsin team that loves running the ball. Michigan State’s defense, while respectable, can be exploited on the ground. MSU is allowing 124.0 rushing yards per game to opponents, fifth-most in the Big Ten.
Best Bet: Wisconsin -9.5 (-128)
Joseph, for all his turnover issues, remains the best quarterback taking the field. Wisconsin’s dynamic rushing attack, with or without Sama, should find a way to generate positive yardage against MSU’s banged-up defense. On the other side, the Spartans will be hurting without Edwards. For a team that relies heavily on time of possession, a major blow to the running game makes things much more difficult. At home, the Badgers should earn a two-score win.
