#3 Notre Dame (4-0) is on a roll, having just dominated Purdue last weekend. Saturday presents another opportunity for the Fighting Irish to bolster their resume. North Carolina (2-1) is still looking to establish its identity under head coach Bill Belichick. Still, there have been some encouraging signs this season in Chapel Hill. A win over TCU and a close road loss to Clemson offer a blueprint for the Tar Heels to remain competitive going forward. Can they pull off a massive upset at home this afternoon?
The Fighting Irish are listed as 21-point favorites over the Tar Heels, with the total set at O/U 46.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Week 5 matchup.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction, preview
Pick your poison when it comes to this Notre Dame offense. CJ Carr is the headliner at quarterback, and for good reason. Through four games, he’s thrown for 963 yards and nine touchdowns compared to just one interception. Even more impressive, the junior has completed over 70% of his pass attempts. Jordan Faison is a reliable safety blanket, but Micah Gilbert has been the main attraction so far. He leads the Irish with 334 receiving yards, averaging 22.3 yards per route as well.
Getting the ground game is key for Notre Dame, both this week and going forward. The two-headed monster of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price is now gone. In their place, it’s been a near 50/50 split between Aneyas Williams and Nolan James Jr. The former is more of a traditional ‘back, leading the team with 224 rushing yards on 52 attempts (4.3 YPC). The latter has been more involved in the passing game, snagging nine receptions and two touchdowns through the air. Having an elite offensive line open up running lanes certainly helps as well. Both players managed to reach the end zone last week vs. Purdue.
North Carolina was oh-so-close to a major statement win at Clemson two weeks ago. Unfortunately, it all fell apart late en route to a 28-20 defeat. The secondary has been an early positive for UNC, allowing a meager 6.0 yards per pass attempt and only one touchdown to opposing quarterbacks. On the ground, North Carolina is giving up a respectable 3.35 yards per carry as well. However, Clemson managed to churn out 185 rushing yards when these teams met. A more formidable Irish ground game should find some success on Saturday.
If the Heels are going to finish with a winning record this season, they’ll need to see some improvement on offense. It all starts with quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who has done a decent job so far. Over three games, he’s thrown for 613 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Out of the backfield, Benjamin Hall and Demon June have combined for 330 rushing yards and six total touchdowns. Still, it’s fair to say that this group leaves much to be desired. UNC’s 366.0 yards of offense per game is the ACC’s third-lowest mark. On the bright side, the school ranks 59th in the nation in average time of possession (30:18 minutes).
If you thought this Irish offense was a problem, the other side of the ball is even better. Notre Dame has allowed a combined 33 points to its first four opponents. While none of those teams are world-beaters, three of them reside in the Big Ten. Stifling any Power Four offense to that degree deserves some praise. This group’s greatest strength is preventing big plays. It all starts with Leonard Moore, a future first round pick and arguably the nation’s top cornerback. As a whole, this secondary is limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 6.0 yards per pass attempt. In addition, the Fighting Irish have already racked up an impressive 13.0 sacks and 29.0 tackles for loss.
Best Bet: Notre Dame vs. North Carolina under 24.5 points 1st Half (-112)
There’s no question that Notre Dame has enough talent to compete for a national championship. However, the Irish (dating back to last season) often come out a bit sluggish. Look no further than one-possession halftime leads against Wisconsin and Michigan State. North Carolina, if nothing else, should find a way to chew some clock at home. If that occurs, don’t expect much scoring during the game’s first 30 minutes.
