The MLB playoffs are officially underway, with the Wild Card round in full swing. Four teams feel the pressure of being one loss away from elimination and will look to rebound on a busy Wednesday slate.
The Philadelphia Phillies will open the action at 2:00 p.m. ET against the Atlanta Braves as they look to extend their season, before the Houston Astros host the Chicago White Sox in the same situation. Later, the Boston Red Sox will face the New York Yankees after a convincing 9-0 win by New York yesterday. In the final matchup, the Chicago Cubs are looking to bounce back from nearly as concerning a loss, falling 8-0 to the San Diego Padres in their postseason opener.
While the pressure has increased and it feels as if every pitch matters more, there are plenty of the same ways to get involved in the action on DraftKings Sportsbook. With a timely home run holding a chance for each player to etch themselves into the record books forever, here are my three favorites candidates on Wednesday’s playoff slate.
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | Paredes has 25 HRs on the season, with 21 of these coming against RHP. Sean Burke allowed 19 HRs this season, so expect the strong form Paredes ended the season in to carry over tonight. |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | Ben Rice ripped open the game yesterday with 2 HRs after recording 41 long balls across the regular season. He has an even more favorable matchup today with Sonny Gray on the mound, whom he is 3-for-7 against with 2 HR in his career. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | PCA led the NL in slugging percentage and the MLB in total bases and HRs. Of his 45 home runs, 34 have come against right-handed pitching and he will face this matchup advantage with the Cubs’ season on the line tonight. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive deeper into these three plays on Wednesday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+571)
Isaac Paredes is coming off one of the best regular seasons of his career in which he posted overall slash lines of .262/.360/.447 with an .806 OPS. He tallied 25 home runs and 94 RBIs, just shy of his career highs of 31 long balls and 98 RBIs over a season. Paredes closed the season in especially strong form, slugging .615 with eight home runs across the final month of the season. He also tallied 14 of his 25 home runs at home this season, where the Astros will be suiting up again today.
Right-handed pitcher Sean Burke will take the ball for the White Sox today. It was an up-and-down season for the 26-year-old overall. He finished with a 3.34 ERA on the season and allowed 19 total home runs. This is a slight notch of improvement after posing a 4.22 ERA with 23 home runs allowed last year. Paredes has faced off with Burke in nine at-bats in his career, going 3-for-9 with a pair of extra-base hits. The Astros’ All-Star has also notched 21 of his 25 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.
Even if Paredes does not do enough damage to the White Sox starter, this is a Chicago bullpen that has allowed the seventh-most home runs in the MLB this year. The collective pitching staff has allowed the ninth-most home runs since the All-Star break. Paredes went 1-for-4 yesterday and closed the regular season with 4 HRs, 11 hits and a 1.52 OPS across his final nine regular-season games. Expect this to carry over into this matchup with favorable pitching splits and for Paredes to help set the tone for this desperate Houston team tonight.
Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+326)
Sometimes the biggest value is the one that is staring you directly in the face. While I sifted through previous matchups, hitting splits and recent form of the notable players, it was impossible for the conclusion not to point us directly back to Ben Rice. The Yankees All-Star helped break the game open yesterday in the 9-0 victory, going 4-for-5 at the plate with two home runs and six RBIs.
Rice is looking to build off of his first All-Star season in which he posted slash lines of .264/.363/.534 with an .897 OPS. The left-handed slugger tallied 41 home runs and 97 RBIs on the season, and he has posted a .605 slugging percentage with six home runs in the month of September.
It is a tough matchup on paper with Sonny Gray set to take the ball for the Red Sox tonight. The three-time All-Star is coming off a season in which he posted a 2.72 ERA and an 18-5 overall record. Gray has allowed 16 total home runs this season, with 10 of these coming against lefties. He has also allowed 62 total home runs over the past three seasons, and he gave up two HRs and eight hits while recording just 12 outs in his last postseason start. Rice has matched up better with right-handed hitting, knocking 30 of his 41 home runs over the fence in these matchups. This includes having success against Gray directly, as he is 3-for-7 against the Red Sox starter with two home runs in these opportunities.
Rice is in about as good of a form as you can realistically ask from any player, and this is a matchup he has had success in the past. He made a statement yesterday at the plate, and expect this to carry over today as the Yankees attempt to eliminate their rival today.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+319)
The Chicago Cubs were defeated 8-0 by the San Diego Padres last night, and the pressure is on to keep their season alive. Padres starting pitcher Michael King mowed through 7.0 innings of work, allowing just one hit and not conceding a run. Expect no one to feel the weight of the moment more than expected NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs star had an impressive season in which he posted slash lines of .280/.372/.570 with a .943 OPS. Crow-Armstrong led the National League in slugging percentage and OPS, as well as the entire MLB in total bases.
Expect the outlook for Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs’ offense to be more favorable today with Nick Pivetta on the mound. The 33-year-old right-hander made just eight outings this season, posting a 2.86 ERA and allowing two home runs in these limited opportunities. But Pivetta has given up 22+ home runs in four consecutive seasons before this and 199 total in his career.
Crow-Armstrong launched an MLB-best 45 home runs this season, with 34 of these coming against right-handed pitching. He has a .973 OPS against righties and finished the regular season with a .288 batting average, four home runs and a .977 OPS over the final two weeks. Chicago’s season is on the line, and I don’t buy the level of success that Pivetta’s numbers show in the limited sample size. Expect Crow-Armstrong to recognize the weight of the moment and center this the right way. The +319 odds feel like a fair swing for the man holding the most responsibility on his shoulders and looking to keep his stellar season alive.
