The 2026 MLB Postseason is kicking-off with a doozy.
Division rivals will matchup in the NL Wild Card round at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the Phillies and the Braves will met yet again. During the regular season, Atlanta had nine wins in the 13 games that these two clubs played, but the slate is now wiped clean.
Will this finally be the year that this Philadelphia core comes together and wins it all? Or will the Braves prove to be too much? Let’s dive into this matinee playoff matchup and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Braves Game 1 prediction, preview
The Phillies may have won their final game of the regular season to clinch a Wild Card berth, but that victory was not without its cost. With the playoffs on the line, Zack Wheeler was forced to start on Sunday, and after six innings and 97 pitches, the right-hander will certainly be unavailable for the first two games of this three-game series.
That left some doubt as to who would be available to start Game 1 for Philadelphia — with the knowledge that Cristopher Sanchez was locked into Game 2. The answer? Jesus Luzardo. However, it’s Jesus Luzardo with an asterisk. Per Don Mattingly, Luzardo will “open” Tuesday’s contest, with Andrew Painter scheduled to follow the hard-throwing LHP. How long will Luzardo’s leash be? That’s up for debate. Ironically, the veteran went on the IL after tossing a complete game against the Braves back on September 7. He then faced three batters and threw only four pitches in a relief appearance on Sunday, though reports are Luzardo completed a 30-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday. I’d expect for 28-year-old to be capped around 40-45 pitches, which maybe means he’ll be able to get through Atlanta’s order one time.
It’s also worth noting that Painter was much improved over the final two months of the season, registering a 3.65 ERA and a 3.56 xERA across his final 11 starts. Obviously, Mattingly would prefer to be able to ride Luzardo without restriction, yet the Phillies’ former top prospect is finally beginning to live up to his own lofty expectations. He’s earned his opportunity to be a large part of Philadelphia’s postseason aspirations, and he might not be in all that bad a spot, considering the Braves have struggled to an 88 wRC+ dating back to September 1.
The Phillies have had just as much offensive woe in recent weeks — maybe even more. In the final month of the regular season, Philadelphia ranked dead-last in the National League in batting average (.226), while sitting 14th in wRC+ (81) and 13th in wOBA (.295). Unfortunately for the floundering lineup, things won’t get any easier on Tuesday with Chris Sale taking the mound for Atlanta.
Sale is now 37-years-old, but the one-day Hall of Fame left-hander just posted his finest campaign since all the way back in 2018 with the Red Sox. In 27 starts and 162.2 innings of work, Sale maintained a 2.16 ERA with a 2.29 FIP that was the second-lowest qualified mark in MLB. The veteran also possessed a 30.9% strikeout rate and a league-high 6.45 K/BB ratio. The part that’s hard to believe? When Sale toes the bump in Game 1, it will somehow be his first postseason start with the Braves, and first overall since 2021. That just doesn’t seem possible, does it?
Phillies vs. Braves Game 1 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7 (-134)
Sale’s 2.29 FIP was the second-lowest mark in MLB, while his 1.44 FIP against LHBs was somehow that much better. That left-on-left dominance will be even more important when facing the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. On top of the talented pitching matchup, these two lineup ranked 24th and 29th in wRC+ in the month of September. No one’s really swinging a hot bat.
Strong Lean: NRFI (-155)
As mentioned above, Sale has a huge advantage against the left-heavy top of the Phillies order, while I have the most confidence in Jesus Luzardo in the first inning, as that’s when he’ll be the freshest. The fact Luzardo owns a 0.78 ERA the first time through the opposing lineup in 2026 is also quite the alluring stat.
