With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens waiting on the other end, I’d have trouble calling a handoff, too. Brian Schottenheimer has indulged that temptation: Dallas has thrown on an aggressive 69.2% of neutral plays, with a whopping +12.3% PROE. Dak Prescott rewarded him with a surgical 26 completions on 31 attempts and four touchdowns against Washington. Keep throwing, gentlemen. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Baltimore Ravens.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cowboys vs. Ravens prediction, preview
Lamb’s enormous 23.4 XFP/G dwarfs Pickens’ more modest 12.2, though Pickens brings his own ammunition against Baltimore. He has torched Cover 3/4 for 2.86 YPRR across a substantial 253 routes since 2025. Those coverages don’t tell us where the safeties start, and his weaker work against two-high shells gives me pause. Fortunately, Prescott doesn’t have to force the ball to Pickens to justify throwing it.
Baltimore, meanwhile, has finally loosened its grip on Lamar Jackson’s passing leash. Under new OC Declan Doyle, the Ravens rank a comparatively aggressive ninth in PROE after finishing a run-heavy 31st and 26th the previous two seasons. Doyle has dialed up PA on a healthy 31.5% of passing plays; Jackson’s offense has answered with a blistering 10.0 YPA. Dallas leans heavily on Cover 3/4 (59.2%), against which Jackson has ripped off a devastating 9.73 YPA since 2025.
Now ask Dallas to defend that without Cobie Durant, Malik Hooker, P.J. Locke and DeMarvion Overshown. Baltimore has its own problems: Ronnie Stanley’s toe injury pushes Carson Vinson toward his first start at left tackle, and Zay Flowers remains questionable. Rashod Bateman’s seven catches for a welcome 88 yards last week encourage me. They don’t block anybody, though, and replacing Stanley worries me.
Ravens vs. Cowboys pick, best bet
Nor am I blindly extending Prescott’s demolition of the Giants and Commanders. Baltimore gets Nnamdi Madubuike and Teddye Buchanan back, while Dallas’s meager 56.5 plays per game threatens to leave some of this receiving talent standing around. Baltimore and New Orleans each managed just eight meaningful possessions last week. We could love every matchup and still spend too much of Sunday waiting for the ball.
Dallas also trades its familiar home setting for Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, with both teams shouldering a long trip. The 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff keeps their body clocks in familiar afternoon territory; I’m more concerned about what’s under their cleats. NFL officials have downplayed the turf complaints, but unreliable footing could blunt Jackson’s cuts and the receivers’ breaks. That uncertainty helps keep me leaning to the total. With nine meaningful possessions apiece, my forecast needs a demanding 3.17 points per drive. I’m trusting Prescott and Jackson to finish drives, while recognizing how quickly a slipping receiver or wasted possession could make this over uncomfortable.
Best bet: Over 52.5 (-114)
Final score: Ravens 30, Cowboys 27
