Joe Burrow has released a hefty 63% of his passes within 2.5 seconds, which should lend Sunday’s confrontation with Pittsburgh’s pass rush a rather impatient rhythm. The Steelers have pressured opposing quarterbacks on a ferocious 41.5% of dropbacks. Burrow can make them hurry, and with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins available, he can ask the secondary to finish a job the rush hasn’t yet completed. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Steelers vs. Bengals prediction, preview
Pittsburgh has deployed Cover 3/4 on a hefty 64.2% of defensive dropbacks. Chase has averaged a scorching 2.96 YPRR across 247 routes against those coverages since 2025, a substantial receiving sample for a matchup that already suits Cincinnati’s distribution. Against Houston, Chase caught seven passes for a sturdy 75 yards and two touchdowns; Higgins added an explosive 95 yards on five catches. Joey Porter Jr. and Jamel Dean remain questionable for Pittsburgh, which may again have to improvise outside.
I wouldn’t mistake Cincinnati’s comfortable 20–6 win for a defensive exhibition, however. Houston gained 374 yards and reached the red zone an unsettling four times. Dalton Schultz alone caught 12 passes for a devastating 140 yards. Burrow’s defense repeatedly escaped consequences that its opponent had spent the afternoon approaching, and assuming another such escape would make the Bengals an expensive favorite.
Their work against the run encourages me more. Cincinnati has allowed a stifling 3.0 YPC on designed runs and just a suffocating 0.74 adj. YBC/ATT to RBs. Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe have changed the front’s personnel; Pittsburgh will attack it without Rico Dowdle, with Jaylen Warren questionable and guard Gennings Dunker out. Aaron Rodgers may again face too many passing downs that everybody in the stadium recognizes as passing downs.
Bengals vs. Steelers pick, best bet
Rodgers and the Steelers have converted a pitiful five of 25 third downs, scored one lonely offensive touchdown and generated an abysmal -0.334 EPA/play. They can improve on that miserable start. Pat Freiermuth offers an obvious route through Cincinnati’s vulnerable TE coverage, though his modest 57% Week 2 route share gives him a smaller assignment than Schultz enjoyed. Michael Pittman Jr.’s questionable foot adds another complication to an offense still searching for dependable receiving work.
My forecast already allows Pittsburgh a considerable recovery. The Steelers’ early defensive results came against Cooper Rush and a Patriots offense missing A.J. Brown; Burrow brings a whole different level problems. Pittsburgh can certainly punish protection mistakes and keep this close, but I trust Cincinnati to create more manageable downs, and finish more of its drives by final whistle.
Best bet: Bengals -3.5 (-108)
Final score: Bengals 24, Steelers 17
