The Major League Baseball regular season comes to a close on Sunday, but before the season finale, 13 games are spread throughout the day on Saturday to fill up the day with plenty of drama. With two divisions still undecided and the NL Wild Card spots still up for grabs, there are many storylines to track this Saturday, along with some excellent home run props to consider. Looking at the matchups, game environment, and current form of the hitters available, my top three home run props for this Saturday are from Bobby Witt Jr., Nolan Arenado and Isaac Paredes.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | Witt is 10-for-27 against Tanner Bibee in their past meetings, including 3 HR. He needs 2 HR to get to 20 on the year and has 14 of his 18 HR vs. RHP and 13 of his 18 HR at home. |
| Nolan Arenado | Diamondbacks | Arenado has 4 HR in 5 games and is 23-for-52 (.442) in his last 14 games with a .606 wOBA and a .519 ISO. He has 30 HR on the season, with 20 against righties like Walker Buehler, whom Arenado has hit two homers against in the past. |
| Isaac Paredes | Astros | Paredes has six homers in his last 15 games, going 15-for-54 (.278) with a .412 wOBA and .370 ISO. He has a 41.3% hard-hit rate over those 15 games, which is a huge jump from his season level of just a 29.3% hard-hit rate. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+375)
Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr. has posted 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in each of his first four seasons in the MLB, but this year he has only 18 homers, needing two dingers to reach that plateau again with two games left in the year. He’ll get a great matchup to attack on Saturday against the Guardians SP Tanner Bibee.
While his power numbers have been down just a little bit, he has still been solid in a disappointing season for the Royals. He has been limited to 141 games played this year, but he’s still .282 with a .347 wOBA with 44 stolen bases.
The 26-year-old has been stuck on 18 homers for 13 games, but he could still get to 20 with a big weekend. He has been hitting the ball well lately, reaching base safely in 15 straight games and posting a 57.7% hard-hit rate over his last seven games while going 11-for-29.
Witt is an impressive 10-for-27 against Bibee in their past meetings, including three homers. Bibee and the Guardians are still playing for the division title, but he has allowed 29 homers in his 32 games this season, including three in his last three games.
Of his 18 homers on the season, Witt has hit 14 against righties and 13 at home, and he’ll be on the strong side of both of those splits in Saturday night’s contest.
Nolan Arenado to Hit a Home Run (+600)
The Diamondbacks are keeping the pressure on the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot and start Saturday’s action just one game behind Philadelphia with two games left. Arizona has the tiebreaker as well, so all they have to do is make up one game over the weekend to claim a postseason spot. While the Phillies take on the Rays in Tampa, Arizona is taking on the Padres and Walker Buehler.
In the middle of the Dbacks’ playoff push, Arenado has gotten red hot. He’s already hit 30 homers in his first season with the Diamondbacks, including nine in the month of September.
Arenado has hit four homers in his last five games and eight homers in his last 14 contests. He is 23-for-52 (.442) during that 14-game span with a .606 wOBA and a .519 ISO. He has hit 20 of his 30 homers against righties, and he’ll take on another righty on Saturday night in Walker Buehler. Arenado is only 7-for-38 against Buehler in their past meetings, but two of those seven hits were home runs.
Buehler has been solid overall for the Padres this year, but he has given up seven homers over his last six starts. Righties have hit 11 of the 21 homers (52%) against Buehler this season, even though they only have 43% of the at-bats against him. He has also allowed eight runs in nine innings against Arizona this season.
The Snakes are charging fast, and Arenado has very favorable odds to stay hot and get another homer (and another win) on Saturday against Buehler.
Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+443)
Let’s close out the night of home run props with a play from the late game in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park. The Astros and Rangers are tied for the lead in the AL West with two games left, and the Astros are taking on the A’s in a favorable spot for home runs on Saturday night.
In September, Isaac Paredes has stepped up to support Yordan Alvarez as a secondary option in the Astros’ lineup. The 27-year-old righty is up to 24 homers on the season after going yard on Thursday night to help the Astros win the series opener.
Paredes has six homers in his last 15 games, going 15-for-54 (.278) with a .412 wOBA and .370 ISO. He has a 41.3% hard-hit rate over those 15 games, which is a huge jump from his season level of just a 29.3% hard-hit rate.
The A’s will give the ball to Jack Perkins for Saturday’s matchup. Perkins has allowed 20 homers this season and is 1-7 with a 7.05 ERA in his 60 innings at Sutter Health Park. Righties have an 8.8% barrel rate against Perkins in his home starts, and 20 of Paredes’ 24 homers have come against righties like Perkins.
In another key chance for the Astros to get a big win, look for Paredes to stay hot and come up clutch on Saturday.
