I’m looking for paydirt love in strange places this week, especially for QB-keepers. I get a little more predictable with some receivers whose quarterbacks keep finding them against the precise coverage packages they’ll see Sunday. Three singles lead the way, followed by five longer-priced alternatives.
Week 3 NFL Anytime TD Scorer Picks
Chris Olave (+155) vs. Raiders
Tyler Shough keeps returning to Chris Olave, and after consecutive games with at least eight catches and 10 targets, it’d just be darn silly to expect Las Vegas to be defense that forces him elsewhere. Against Baltimore, Olave caught eight passes for 86 yards and a touchdown while running routes on 87% of New Orleans’ dropbacks. Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson have their work, certainly; Olave still supplies the most convincing combination of opportunity and efficiency.
Las Vegas has played Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 63.2% of its defensive snaps. Against those coverages since last season, Olave has averaged 2.64 YPRR, and has commanded a target on 28% of his routes across a 261-route sample. The Raiders have limited outside receivers through two games, surprisingly, so it’s not a total gimme. At +155, though, I’ll take the hottest QB/WR combo in the league to bury one.
Cam Ward (+400) at Giants
Seven rushing yards, two touchdowns. A first-quarter Jalen Hurts line for Cam Ward last week. RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears still divide substantial backfield work; neither seem to be the better goal-line option than Cam Ward.
The Giants enter Week 3 ranked 31st in red-zone defense and third-down defense, an accommodating combination for an offense that has struggled to sustain much of anything. New York also allows 3.36 adjusted yards before contact per RB carry. Tennessee should have plenty of opportunities to advance on the ground, and get close to the goal line.
I have zero faith in Ward carrying the passing offense—161.5 yards per game so far—than in him falling over the goal line.
Adonai Mitchell (+340) at Lions
Garrett Wilson nabbed the Jets’ lone passing touchdown last week. QB Geno Smith still sent 12 targets toward Adonai Mitchell, who finished with just six catches for 63 yards. Let’s see that distribution again against Detroit, and I’ll happily punch my Week 3 ticket on the longer-priced receiver, provided Mitchell’s injured finger permits him to play.
Detroit’s used Cover 3 on 46.5% of their defensive snaps. Mitchell has averaged 2.22 YPRR against that coverage since last season, commanding targets on 25% of those routes. Geno, meanwhile, has averaged 8.59 yards per attempt against it. There’s a triangulated fit between the quarterback, receiver and coverage here, and Geno has a tendency to play well against the Campbell Lions.
The Lions have surrendered three passing touchdowns each game so far, and Mitchell has reached 60 receiving yards in both. +340 is juicy enough for me to bet on his separation, and Geno’s accuracy.
Week 3 NFL Anytime TD Scorer Long Shots
| Player | Team | Odds | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | +360 | vs. NE |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN | +360 | at NYG |
| Colby Parkinson* | LAR | +400 | at DEN |
| Tre Tucker | LV | +310 | at NO |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | +300 | vs. NE |
