It’s Week 4 and there’s plenty of college football action throughout the day on Saturday. The Colorado Buffaloes started out 2-0 on the year but were blasted in a blowout loss last week; they’re looking to bounce back against the Baylor Bears, who narrowly missed out on an unbeaten start to their own campaign. This matchup is set for 12 p.m. ET in Waco, Texas as these teams start their respective Big 12 schedules.
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Colorado vs. Baylor in Week 4 of the 2026 college football season.
Colorado vs. Baylor prediction, preview
Through the first three games of the year, Colorado comes in with a 2-1 record but has some clear questions about the viability of really competing for the Big 12. The season started with a 14-13 win over Georgia Tech and a 52-21 victory over Weber State of the FCS, but the Buffaloes were beaten badly by Northwestern last week – that matchup ended with a final score of 41-7. You can argue that Big Ten competition is tougher than the Big 12 and that the Wildcats are on the come-up; even with that said, it was a discouraging performance for Deion Sanders’ squad.
Colorado is averaging 411 yards per game with 181 of those coming on the ground – Micah Welch, JaQuail Smith and Damian Henderson have all posted 100+ rushing yards on the season thus far. Julian Lewis also has a 63.3% completion rate with 658 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions, so he’s played decent football himself. There’s a pair of wideouts with 200+ yards in Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr., too. The pieces of a high productive offense are present, but the Buffaloes scored just three combined touchdowns across their two games against FBS opponents with 348 or fewer total yards in each of those outings. Beating up on an FCS foe inflated the stats a little bit, and that may show against Baylor.
Meanwhile, the Bears came close to an unbeaten start had they not fallen to Auburn 17-16 in the season opener. Otherwise, they have a 44-3 blowout over the FCS’ Prairie View and a 36-19 win over Louisiana Tech on their record through three weeks. It’s been a really solid first few weeks for Baylor, and if the numbers are to be believed, this is an underrated team that could make a little bit of noise this year.
Dave Aranda’s squad averages 32.0 points and 468.7 yards per game on the offensive side of things. The passing attack has been particularly potent with over 40 attempts and 306.3 yards per game – there could be something of a quarterback controversy here, though. DJ Lagway started the opener but suffered an injury in that game that forced him to miss the following two weeks. Nate Bennett looked really nice under center with a 75.0% completion rate, 567 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions while showing more of a willingness to throw downfield. Lagway should step back in as the starter, though, with 333 yards, two scores and one pick to his name thus far. Wideout Gavin Freeman leads the nation with 29 receptions to this point, taking those for 305 yards and one touchdown, but Jayden McGowan and Louis Brown both have 150+ yards – the former has four touchdowns already. Defensively, Baylor has given up just 287 yards per game and has been uncharacteristically stout.
Colorado vs. Baylor pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Baylor enters as a 9.5-point favorite with -380 odds on the Moneyline; Colorado is a +300 underdog to win outright. The game total sits at 55.5 combined points between these teams.
This game shapes up as one that could serve as a real statement by the Bears. As long as Lagway can play a decent game, this offense should be able to take advantage of the matchup and rack up a ton of yardage. The Buffaloes are giving up 242.7 yards and two touchdowns per game through the air at the moment, and given the pass-happy nature of Baylor thus far, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a ceiling game in that regard. Could the Colorado offense hang around? Sure, but if the first few weeks of Baylor’s defensive performances are to be believed, that may not be an easy task. There’s a world where this is a close game, or otherwise just a shootout that goes way over the total, but I’ve seen enough from the Bears to think this team might be for real this year. If the passing attack keeps rolling like this and the defense continues to hold up, they could be looking at a chance to really cause some trouble in conference play.
Best Bet: Baylor -9.5 (-115)
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