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Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers (Saturday – 12pm ET)
No. 1 Texas heads to Knoxville on Saturday afternoon to face Tennessee with the Vols in the home underdog role. It’s rare for the Vols to be catching points at home, with this just the fifth time since 2022. In the previous four instances, Tennessee is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 straight up — both wins coming over Alabama, and both losses coming to Georgia.
Texas goes on the road for the first time this season, and has not been a strong road team under Steve Sarkisian. Since Sark was hired in 2021, the Longhorns are just 8-15 ATS in true road games. 2025 was a disaster for Texas on the road, going 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU. Two of the losses were as a short road underdog at Ohio State and Georgia. The Longhorns were favored by more than a touchdown in the other three, and had very dicey showings.
Texas lost its first road game in SEC play by eight points to a 4-8 Florida team. The two wins both came in overtime in games the Longhorns easily could have lost — a three-point win at Kentucky and a seven-point win at Mississippi State. Those were both 5-7 teams.
In Texas’ only true test this season, it got the miraculous home win over Ohio State to vault to No. 1 in the rankings. But remember, the Longhorns were dominated for three quarters of that game, and had everything go their way in a fourth quarter than Ohio State laid down and played scared.
Tennessee doesn’t have a true test so far. Its best win came against a poor Georgia Tech team, but the Vols took care of business with a 21-point road win. True freshman QB, Faizon Brandon, will have his hands full with this Texas defense. But I trust Josh Heupel to have his QB in position to make plays here, and he poses a dual threat along with what has been a strong running game overall for the Vols.
If Tennessee can limit the big plays out of Texas, it should have a great chance to jump out to a strong start and be in command to hold on for the game. The Vols have a strong pass rush, and Arch Manning has tended to hold onto the ball for too long. The Longhorns have also had offensive line issues, which should play into Tennessee’s favor at home. The OL has had trouble generating a rushing offense, and Hollywood Smothers (starting RB) is surprisingly listed as questionable for this game on the Texas injury report.
I’m splitting my bet up a few ways here to fade Texas on the road. I’m backing the Vols on the full game spread and first half spread, while also placing a smaller wager on the Halftime/Fulltime — a double result market for Tennessee to lead at halftime and win the game.
CFB Pick: Tennessee +4.5 (-110) – 0.5-units
CFB Pick: Tennessee 1H +3 (-115) – 0.5-units
CFB Pick: Tennessee Halftime/Fulltime (+300) – 0.33-units
