Entering the final day of the WNBA season, there’s still a lot to play for, as only four of the eight playoff teams have locked in their seeding. One matchup has been determined — the No. 1 Minnesota Lynx will host the No. 8 New York Liberty in the first round — but either the Golden State Valkyries or the Las Vegas Aces could finish as the No. 2 seed, hosting the No. 7 Dallas Wings, and either the Indiana Fever or Washington Mystics will travel to face the No. 4 Atlanta Dream as the fifth seed.
The Aces and the Valkyries will play concurrently, with Golden State’s road game against the Los Angeles Sparks tipping off at 10:10 p.m. ET. If they win, the Valkyries will secure the second seed.
Golden State has a completely clean injury report for tonight’s contest, but the Sparks have listed three players: Cameron Brink (ankle) and Aaliyah Nye (ankle) both remain out, but Dearica Hamby (knee) is probable after missing the last two games.
The Valkyries are 11.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-575 Moneyline), with the total set at 158.5 points. Los Angeles is +425 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this seeding-decider and offer a prediction.
Valkyries at Sparks Best Bet
Golden State Valkyries -6.5 First Half Spread (-115): Golden State’s dominant interior defense should allow it to take away the Sparks’ Plan A, and it’s slightly better in all phases of the game. The Valkyries, needing only a win to sew up the second seed in the playoffs, should be highly motivated right from tipoff to quash Las Vegas’ hopes before halftime.
Valkyries at Sparks prediction, pick
If defense wins championships, then Golden State should be the unequivocal favorite; the Valkyries have allowed just 99.1 points per 100 possessions this season, and over the last 10 games, that’s an even more untouchable 91.5 points per 100 possessions, which would be the best mark in WNBA history across a full season. Individually, Gabby Williams leads the league in steal percentage. Their offense hasn’t been quite as stellar in that span, but their dominance has been so thorough defensively that they still rank third in net rating in the last 10 games and first overall. By contrast, the Sparks have had basketball’s third-worst defense this season, and they’ve been 3.4 points per 100 possessions worse on that end of the ball with Brink off the floor. All in all, Los Angeles has the worst net rating of the three 16-27 teams playing seeding-impacting games tonight.
The Sparks like to get downhill; although they’ve attempted a merely average number of attempts at the rim this season, they’ve converted them at the third-highest rate. That could be a challenge against Golden State, which has allowed 2.9 fewer layups per game than any other team and held opponents to the lowest percentage on such shots behind 2015 All-Defensive honoree Kiah Kiah Stokes’ resurgent season. The Valkyries aren’t good at driving or finishing, getting downhill at the lowest rate and making their layups at merely league-average efficiency, but given that Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most restricted-area tries and the highest percentage on such looks, they should find it easier to dominate the interior offensively tonight. For the season, Golden State has been out-scored in the paint, but the Sparks have been out-scored by more.
The Valkyries are roughly a league-average rebounding team, snagging exactly half of all available boards this season. Los Angeles, on the other hand, ranks dead last in total rebounding percentage, although it’s actually been slightly more competitive on the glass with the six-foot-four Brink off the floor. Golden State should also have a slight edge in transition; although the Valkyries haven’t been great at forcing turnovers, they’ve been extremely careful with the ball and the Sparks have allowed the most points in transition. However, Los Angeles has been better at getting to the charity stripe via its physical interior play, so getting Veronica Burton in foul trouble is key to its upset hopes.
As it always does with Golden State, this game should come down to three-point shooting. Like their Chase Center NBA counterpart, the Valkyries fire away from deep with reckless abandon, attempting the most threes per game. They connect at the sixth-highest rate, with Burton, Kayla Thornton, Janelle Salaün, and Kaitlyn Chen all over 35% from deep and Salaün ranking eighth overall in made triples. Golden State has also limited opponents to a league-low 32.5% from beyond the arc on the sixth-fewest attempts. The Sparks have some decent shooters as well, ranking near the league average in attempts and accuracy on both sides of the ball, but their best shooter, Kelsey Plum, is off the roster and Monique Akoa Makani has really struggled with her jumper since joining the team.
Ultimately, the Valkyries are just a little bit better in every phase of the game, and while Los Angeles has nothing to play for, Golden State will still be fighting for the league’s second seed, which will give it much-needed home-court advantage in a hypothetical second-round series against the Aces. The Valkyries should come out firing early and squash Las Vegas’ hopes before they begin.
