For most teams, the final weekend of the MLB season is inconsequential. That’s not the case this evening at Fenway Park. The Guardians (82-76) are angling for their third straight AL Central title. However, they lead Chicago by just one game in the standings. As for the Red Sox (85-73), today’s game provides an opportunity to lock up the American League’s second wild card spot. Which of these postseason contenders will come out on top this evening in Boston?
The Red Sox are favorites (-131) over the Guardians; the over/under is set at 6.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Cleveland and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Red Sox pick, best bet today
- Red Sox ML (-131); Suarez is the superior arm tonight, battling a Cleveland lineup that doesn’t hit lefties. On the other side, Cantillo’s knack for putting runners on doesn’t bode well for Thursday’s high-stakes matchup on the road.
Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Daniel Espino will serve as today’s starter, but likely just for one inning as an opener. Joey Cantillo is expected to operate as a bulk reliever for the Guardians. Over 154.0 innings pitched this season, the southpaw has recorded a 3.74 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 167 strikeouts (9.8 K/9). Walks are an issue (4.6 BB/9), but swing and miss stuff often gets the 26-year-old out of jams. Cantillo comes into this one on a mini-heater, having tossed ten straight scoreless innings.
It’s not as if today’s opponent is the most intimidating at the plate. Boston has scored an MLB-worst 63 runs during the month of September. Injuries to Ceddanne Rafaela (hamstring) and Willson Contreras (hand) have only made things worse on offense. Still, there’s some reason for optimism tonight. After all, the Red Sox wield the league’s seventh-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.744). Cantillo is responsible for a sky-high 1.55 WHIP when pitching on the road this season.
Even if the bats don’t do much, the Sox have a shot tonight thanks to Ranger Suarez. Despite a few hiccups, it’s been a stellar debut in Beantown for the lefty. Through 143.1 innings of work (27 starts), he’s put up a 3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 135 strikeouts (8.5 K/9). The Venezuelan has allowed one earned run or less in four of his previous five outings as well. He’s a master at inducing weak contact, sitting within the 84th percentile in hard-hit rate (33.5%) and 85th percentile in barrel rate (5.4%). In comparison, Cleveland batters are tied for a league-worst 5.7% barrel rate. To make matters worse, the club has posted a dismal .367 xSLG, second-worst in baseball.
It’s safe to say that this will be an uphill climb for the Guardians. This lineup has shown slight signs of improvement in recent weeks, but it’s difficult to muster too much excitement. They’re only averaging 4.13 runs per game, fifth-lowest in the majors. Even worse, the AL Central leaders have struggled mightily against southpaws. Cleveland has produced a .672 OPS against left-handed pitching, fourth-lowest in the big leagues.
Suarez is on a roll coming into this one, and he shouldn’t have too much difficulty carving up this uninspiring Cleveland offense. As for Cantillo, his penchant for handing out walks makes him a tricky pitcher to back on any given night. At home, Boston is poised to secure its spot in the postseason bracket tonight.
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