There’s still something to play for in the Windy City. The Cubs (87-7) are in the middle of a crowded National League postseason picture. Right now, the team is in possession of the Senior Circuit’s second wild card spot. However, Chicago is one game back of San Diego and tied with Philadelphia. In other words, this group could find itself anywhere between the fourth and sixth seed by the start of next week. That gives added weight to Thursday’s matchup at home with the Marlins (78-80).
The Cubs are favorites (-207) over the Marlins; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Miami and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Cubs pick, best bet today
- Cubs -1.5 (+109): A crafty left-hander such as Boyd could spell trouble for a middling Miami lineup. On the other side, Phillips has been a much worse pitcher on the road. Chicago’s high-powered offense is more than capable of putting up a crooked number.
Marlins vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Surprisingly, Miami has taken the first two games of this series on the road. The Fish will look to make it a sweep tonight with Tyler Phillips on the mound. Through 122.2 innings pitched, the right-hander is responsible for a 3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 99 strikeouts (7.3 K/9). Phillips has done an admirable job in multiple roles, serving as both a reliever and starter. With that being said, he tends to perform much better at home (2.49 ERA) than he does on the road (4.83). Left-handed hitters are slashing .250/.338/.409 against the 28-year-old this season.
Speaking of southpaw sluggers, take your pick on this Chicago lineup. MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong is the headliner, having crushed 45 homers and nabbed 39 steals this season. However, he’s supported by several standout hitters. Seven different Cubs players (minimum 300 plate appearances) have recorded a wRC+ above 100. Baseball’s highest-scoring lineup has been a bit lackluster this month, at least compared to what we’ve seen all season. Still, this has all the makings of a get-right spot. Chicago owns a .759 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, second-best in the big leagues.
The Cubs will hand the ball to Matthew Boyd this afternoon, making his 22nd start of 2026. When healthy, the former All-Star remains an above-average arm. Over 119.2 innings pitched, he’s notched a 4.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts (7.0 K/9). The veteran has allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five appearances. Even more important, he’s done a decent job at limiting free passes (2.8 BB/9). Wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field this afternoon, which could make things even more difficult for Miami.
It’s not as if these Marlins hitters are the most intimidating, either. They’re scoring an average of 4.45 runs per game this season, 16th in baseball. There’s a chance second baseman Xavier Edwards (thumb) sits out today as well. Although Miami isn’t hopeless at the plate, Thursday’s matchup doesn’t appear very promising. The Fish have a .689 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, eighth-worst in the majors. Boyd’s most-used off-speed pitch is a changeup (28%). Against that offering, the Marlins have delivered a .212 xBA and .259 xOBP.
Despite a slight decline this month, the Cubs remain baseball’s highest-scoring offense. Phillips isn’t a scrub by any means, but he’s not nearly as effective on the road. As for Boyd, his repertoire bodes well against a Miami lineup that doesn’t hit left-handed pitching. Add it all up, and Chicago is poised for a comfortable win this afternoon at home.
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