Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the night-half of Thursday’s large slate: Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Olson.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | +592 | In his 179 plate appearances against LHPs this season, Goldschmidt is slashing .307/.402/.588 with a .281 ISO and a 175 wRC+. 11 of the 18 home runs he’s hit have come versus southpaws. As for Ian Seymour’s role in all this, since the All-Star break, the lefty has conceded a whopping 2.15 opponent long balls per nine with a massive 12.3% opponent barrel rate. |
| Matt Olson | +303 | Olson is one of five hitters tied for the third-most home runs in baseball at 41. I think he’ll have sole possession of the bronze medal spot by the end of the evening. Tonight, he gets to face the struggling Brady Singer. The right-hander has surrendered a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs in 2026, along with a robust 10.5% opponent barrel rate. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Home Run (+592)
To save the planet, we’ve all got to recycle, right? Well, how about recycling a home run pick? Ian Seymour was initially supposed to start for the Rays on Wednesday, but the team decided to gift the left-hander an extra day of rest at the last minute, instead opting to give the ball to Mason Englert — it did not go well. However, the main issue I had with the whole proceeding is that it meant no Goldschmidt in the lineup for the Yankees. That will be rectified tonight. So, here’s what I had to say 24 hours ago:
“In his 179 plate appearances against LHPs this season, Goldschmidt is slashing .307/.402/.588 with a .281 ISO and a 175 wRC+. 11 of the 18 home runs he’s hit have come versus southpaws. As for Seymour’s role in all this, since the All-Star break, the LHP has conceded a whopping 2.15 opponent long balls per nine with a massive 12.3% opponent barrel rate.”
Just brush off the dust. It’s still a good bet.
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+303)
Entering play on Thursday, Olson is one of five hitters tied for the third-most home runs in baseball at 41. I think he’ll have sole possession of the bronze medal spot by the end of the evening. The veteran first baseman has been an offensive monster all season long, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging rate (.507) and the 94th percentile of hard hit rate (51.8%). Now, he’ll get to face the struggling Brady Singer, who will be making the final start of what has been a very disappointing campaign. Across 154.0 innings, Singer has pitched to a 5.67 ERA and a 5.72 xERA — which sits in the fourth percentile of MLB. The right-hander’s biggest issue? Keeping opposing LHBs in the park. Singer’s surrendered a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine within the split, along with a robust 10.5% opponent barrel rate. Woof.
