#5 Indiana (3-0) is rolling, having won three straight games in dominant fashion. Now, the defending champs will kick off conference play on Friday night in Bloomington. Following a seven-win campaign, Northwestern (2-0) is looking to re-establish itself as a Big Ten contender. Hanging around, or even upsetting, the Hoosiers would be a major step in the right direction.
The Hoosiers are listed as 21-point favorites over the Wildcats, with the total set at O/U 49.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Friday’s Northwestern vs. Indiana Week 4 matchup.
Northwestern vs. Indiana prediction, preview
Northwestern made quite the statement last week, decimating Colorado en route to a 41-7 victory. Head coach David Braun has done a solid job, going 21-19 over four seasons with the program. This year’s crew has a chance to be his best one yet. Aidan Chiles is the headliner at quarterback, coming over from Michigan State. The senior, despite a lackluster time in East Lansing, possesses plenty of Big Ten experience. Through two games this season, he’s thrown for 514 yards and four touchdowns while adding three more scores on the ground. Most important, the Wildcats have yet to give away the ball this season. They won the turnover battle by a margin of 4-0 against the Buffaloes in Week 3.
That level of ball control will be crucial during Friday’s matchup. The Hoosiers were an opportunistic defense last season, snagging 19 interceptions over 16 games. Several key pieces have now left campus, but there’s undeniable talent remaining on the roster. It helps that most of the team’s projected starters are experienced upperclassmen. Indiana has already racked up three picks this season, albeit against less than stellar competition. This group was among the nation’s best in stopping the run last season, holding opponents to under 3.0 yards per carry. That could force Chiles into throwing the ball more than usual on Friday.
Fernando Mendoza is gone, replaced by TCU transfer Josh Hoover. The big-armed quarterback can certainly air it out; he led the Big 12 with 8.4 yards per pass attempt last season. However, he also coughed up a conference-worst 13 interceptions. That’s been kept in check to start 2026, but today’s game marks the senior’s first true challenge. It’s not as if he won’t have help. Fellow transfer Turbo Richard, brought over from Boston College, adds another layer to this offense. The running back has gained 315 yards and four touchdowns on 41 rush attempts (7.7 YPC). At wide receiver, Charlie Becker is putting together a monster campaign. He leads all IU players with 12 receptions for 272 yards and six touchdowns.
Northwestern’s defense was a true bend don’t break unit in 2025, allowing just under 20 points per game. Teams are gaining just 5.9 yards per pass attempt vs. the Wildcats so far, but its a small sample size. Still, this stingy secondary dominated Colorado quarterback Julian Lewis last week, securing two interceptions. Hoover, another QB with turnover issues, could hand out a pick this evening. If there’s a downside to this group, it’s an inconsistent pass rush. The team has only notched three sacks over its first two games. It’s not as if Northwestern thrived in this category previously, ranking 14th in the Big Ten (23.0).
Best Bet: Northwestern +21.5 (-124)
As good as Indiana is, there may need to be an adjustment period. After all, three opening games against guppies will do little to prepare a team for the Big Ten. It’s not just any B10 team at that; Northwestern is an underrated program. Curt Cignetti is too good of a coach to lose this one at home, but don’t be shocked if the Wildcats hang around on Friday.
