Both the Atlanta Dream and the New York Liberty have clinched playoff spots, but seeding remains up in the air on the last day of the regular season. After winning in New York on Monday, can the Dream pull off a repeat performance? Or will the Liberty steal the win and crawl out of the eighth and final seed in the WNBA playoff bracket?
The Liberty enter as 1.5-point home favorites with -118 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dream are -102 underdogs, with the game total set at 176.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Dream-Liberty matchup.
Dream vs. Liberty Preview
This will be the third and final regular-season meeting between these two teams. Back in June, during Commissioner’s Cup play, the Liberty put the beatdown on the Dream in Atlanta. Despite Sabrina Ionescu’s absence, the Liberty racked up 104 points, with five different scorers scoring 15+ points. Atlanta got their revenge on Monday, winning 95-84 on the road; newly signed DeWanna Bonner proved the difference by dominating New York’s feeble bench unit.
This matchup starts in the frontcourt. Jonquel Jones and Angel Reese are two of the league’s best defenders and will go toe-to-toe on both ends of the floor. Can Jones knock Reese off her game to win the rebounding battle? Will Jones’ shooting ability draw Reese out of the paint enough? Both players are eager to answer these questions. Breanna Stewart merits tons of attention as well, and her defensive rotations will be key to slowing down Rhyne Howard’s aggressive drives.
Plain and simple, New York needs more from their point guards to win this crucial game. Sabrina Ionescu, who missed the first matchup of the season, struggled in Monday’s game against the Dream. The former All-Star went 3-for-12, adding only two assists and two turnovers. It was miles ahead of what her backup, Marine Johannes, had on offer; the highly skilled guard went scoreless, missing all six shots from the floor.
The bench battle is the key here. Both starting lineups went hard in the last matchup, but Atlanta’s bench carried the victory. Bonner’s 17 points on 5-of-6 shooting were better than New York’s entire bench group could do; their four substitutes combined for eight points on 3-of-15 shooting. Starting with Johannes, the Liberty second unit needs to be better and find a way to keep Bonner from beating them. Perhaps an extra dose of Han Xu would do them some favors.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Dream vs. Liberty Pick, Best Bet
It’s hard not to see the Dream as a value here. They’ve looked like contenders all season long; now that Angel Reese is kicking things into a higher gear, they look extremely dangerous. New York is deep on talent but short on consistency, and they’re difficult to trust in a pressure situation. I’ll back the Dream as the road underdogs.
