Two weeks of NFL season are in the books, and while the verdict is still out on many teams, we’re starting to learn who some of these teams are. I’m publishing the NFL Week 3 best bets cheat sheet on Tuesday night with three plays, and will continue to update with more picks throughout the week. Be sure to check back.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Thursday 8:15pm ET)
Through two weeks, the Falcons have been as bad as it gets. Atlanta has one offensive touchdown, and is somehow yet to run a play in the red zone. However, many of the struggles boil down to one major factor — dreadful quarterback play. That could change on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.
Michael Penix will make his season debut for the Falcons, and is in line to start his 13th game in the NFL. Over his last 11 starts alongside Drake London, Penix has left no doubt who his WR1 is. London is averaging over 100 receiving yards per game over that 11 game span, topping the century mark in seven of those games. London could be worth looking at to ladder some of his alternate yardage props given his high ceiling. He also has eight touchdown receptions in the last 10 games he’s played with Penix at the starting QB.
While London is averaging just 40 yards per game this season, it has come with two games of Cooper Rush. Expect a big upgrade on Thursday with Penix locked in on London. The Green Bay secondary surrendered 8-92-2 line to Justin Jefferson in Week 1. Good time to buy-low on London.
NFL Pick: Drake London OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1pm ET)
I’m out on what we’ve seen from the Steelers through two games. This offense is inept. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it was able to mask some of its ineptitude in Week 1 against the Falcons. Cooper Rush led an even worse offense, but the game was still 13-13 in terms of offensive points — the difference in the game was T.J. Watt’s defensive touchdown.
The Steelers followed it up with a three-point showing on the road in New England. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The run game is generating 3.4 yards per carry. There’s no explosiveness to this offense, and no creativity to spark explosiveness.
Meanwhile, we know what the Bengals are capable of offensively. But did the defense finally make the jump this season? In Week 1, Cincy sacked Baker Mayfield four times and forced him into three fumbles — three of four fumbles in the game, all recovered by the Bengals. Last week, Cincinnati went to Houston and held the Texans to six points. I like what I’ve seen from the Bengals, and frankly, I’d fade the Steelers against any capable operation right now.
NFL Pick: CIN -3.5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (Sunday 1pm ET)
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1pm ET)
I thought Week 2 was the perfect sell high spot on Arizona following its Week 1 win over the Chargers, but also a good buy-low spot on Seattle. The Seahawks still don’t seem to be getting respect with Sam Darnold injured. Darnold doesn’t even factor into the equation here for me. Drew Lock has proven perfectly capable, completing 73% of his passes for over 400 yards. He knows where to go with the ball, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has posted a 17-277-4 line through just two games.
That’s all great, but what makes me so comfortable backing Seattle is the defense. The Seahawks held Drake Maye well under 200 passing yards on 33 attempts in Week 1, sacking him three times and picking him off three times in the fourth quarter. New England was held to just 10 points. Jacoby Brissett was held to 95 passing yards in Week 2 on an insane 3.4 yards per pass attempt. Good luck to Marcus Mariota and this 0-2 Washington team.
I thought the Chargers might struggle this season due to a really tough schedule. The tough part wasn’t supposed to be starting the season with home games against the Cardinals and Raiders, but here we are. The Chargers are an embarrassing 0-2, and now the schedule does actually get difficult.
The Chargers have simply been lifeless on both sides of the ball. Now they travel across the country for an early kickoff in Buffalo against a team firing on all cylinders. The Bills could tighten up on defense a bit, but keeping up with Josh Allen and this offense will be a tall task for Justin Herbert and company.
NFL Pick: SEA/BUF ML Parlay (-135)
