Nothing like a little back-to-back action. Fresh off Saturday’s tight contest in Dallas, the Wings and Mercury meet again in Phoenix Monday night. There’s plenty on the line for the Wings, who are tied for the eighth seed in the WNBA playoff race with two regular-season games to go. Can the Mercury play spoiler at home?
The Wings enter as 5.5-point road favorites with -218 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury are +180 underdogs, with the game total set at 173.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Wings-Mercury matchup.
Wings vs. Mercury Preview
This is the third and final regular-season meeting between these squads. Dallas won the first matchup in June, beating Phoenix 85-70 at home during Commissioner’s Cup play. Two days ago, they claimed another home win, this time defeating the Mercury 87-82. A season sweep would go a long way towards moving them up in the playoff picture.
Both teams have grown used to missing key contributors this season. Dallas won’t see rookie Azzi Fudd for the rest of the season, and it’s unclear when Alanna Smith can return. Phoenix won’t have Kelsey Plum for these final two games, and Kahleah Copper’s status remains up in the air. You’d love to see these two teams going at it full-tilt, but at this point in the season, nobody escapes injuries.
Dallas has to key in on Alyssa Thomas offensively to win this one. With Plum out and Kah banged up, AT has to organize the offense yet again. That hasn’t been a problem in these matchups. In the first game, Thomas recorded six points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds. Two days ago, Thomas posted a 19-point triple-double. Jessica Shepard, in particular, has to offer more effort on the defensive end of the floor to stop Thomas from getting everyone else involved. If they can force Thomas to beat them as a scorer, their defense will have a much easier time.
Phoenix has a similar problem with containing their opponents’ stars. Wings superstar Paige Bueckers has scored a combined 57 points across these two previous meetings, shooting 61.5% from the field. Phoenix can’t afford to let Bueckers score at will and needs to lock in on the perimeter to force the ball out of her hands. If they can turn Bueckers’ shots into Arike Ogunbowale shots, their chances of the home upset will increase drastically.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Wings vs. Mercury Pick, Best Bet
I’m having a hard time believing that the Mercury can keep a lid on Paige Bueckers. Few teams can, but this team’s lack of depth leaves them hard-pressed to contain a superstar of her talents. Alyssa Thomas’ presence will raise Phoenix’s floor on both ends, but Dallas has too much talent to overcome.
