The American League East should be well-represented in October. Still, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles remain on the postseason bubble — and they’ll kick off the week with a pivotal three-game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
The Blue Jays (77–79, 4th AL East) trail the White Sox by three games for the third Wild Card spot, with six to play. The Orioles (75–81, 5th AL East) are a distant five games out of the Wild Card.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Toronto right-hander Trey Yesavage (5–5, 3.65 ERA) taking on Baltimore righty Shane Baz (6–15, 4.11 ERA).
First pitch is at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Orioles enter as slight -112 home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Blue Jays are -108 on the moneyline. The game total is set at O/U 7.5 runs.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Preview
Toronto Blue Jays
The reigning American League champions likely won’t be playing in October. The Blue Jays have failed to galvanize a last-second postseason push, going 9–9 this month and sitting three games out of a Wild Card spot with six left in the regular season.
Toronto’s most glaring weakness in 2026 has been its stagnant offense, which ranks a middling 13th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA since September. Vladimir Guerrero has had a strong month — punctuated by his first home run of the year at Rogers Centre against the O’s on September 13 — but it’s been too little, too late after a hugely underwhelming campaign from the star first baseman.
Monday’s series opener marks the return of young starter Trey Yesavage, who has been shelved since early August with a knee injury. While he struggled to make the sophomore leap that many had expected, the right-handed fireballer remains formidable and will be backed up by a sturdy fleet of relievers. Albeit with the help of some serious batted-ball luck, the Blue Jays have posted MLB’s fourth-lowest bullpen ERA (2.88) in September, delivering the second-most innings in that span.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have completely unraveled down the stretch. They’ve gone a miserable 6–12 since the beginning of September — third-worst in MLB — and sit five games out of a Wild Card spot with only six to play.
Baltimore’s late-season collapse has stemmed from a disappearing offense, which ranks 25th in wRC+ and 29th in wOBA, and second in strikeout rate this month. Star first baseman Pete Alonso has done his best to carry the offense, posting an .850 OPS with six homers in September, but the team has sorely felt the regression of once-MVP-hopeful Gunnar Henderson.
The only consistent bright spot for the O’s right now is their steady bullpen, which has posted MLB’s fifth-best ERA (3.17) in September. The arm barn should act as a safety net if Monday’s starter, Shane Baz, continues to stumble. The veteran right-hander has coughed up eight earned runs on 13 hits in his last 9.2 innings of work and exited his last outing after getting drilled on his pitching arm with a 105 mph comebacker.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Pick, Best Bet
The Blue Jays and the Orioles head into their final regular-season series without a lick of offense on either side. And yet, they have a strong chance to smash their reduced game total.
These clubs seem ignited by division rivalry, as they have combined for over 7.5 runs in nine of their 10 meetings this season — including nine straight heading into Monday night. Even with strong bullpens, a returning Trey Yesavage and a stumbling Shane Baz bring enough uncertainty to leave the door open for both teams to pile up runs early.
It might not be pretty, but the Jays and the O’s should clear this modest 7.5-run total once again at Camden Yards.
