The Major League Baseball season has less than a week remaining as teams come to the end of their 162-game marathon. On Monday night, the week gets off to a light start with three games on the scoreboard. Even with only six teams taking the field, there are plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, including some attractive home run props. Looking at the matchups, game environment, and current form of the hitters’ available, my top three home run props for this Monday are from Coby Mayo, Daylen Lile and Walker Jenkins
It should be a great Monday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Coby Mayo | Orioles | Mayo has finally found his power stroke at the MLB level over the second half of the season, with 10 HR since August 1 and 5 in his last 12 games thanks to a 22% barrel rate. He has also homered against Trey Yesavage in their past meetings. |
| Daylen Lile | Nationals | Lile has hit 22 HR this season, including 4 in his last 17 games. In his last six games, he went 8-for-22 (.364) with a double, a triple, and a pair of HR for a .467 wOBA and .409 ISO. |
| Walker Jenkins | Twins | Jenkins hit 2 HR over the weekend in Anaheim and went 9-for-17 in his last four games. He moved to leadoff on Sunday and gets a good matchup for lefties against Blade Tidwell. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Monday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Coby Mayo to Hit a Home Run (+449)
The AL Wild Card race opened up a bit over the weekend, with both the Blue Jays and the Orioles needing a miracle finish to catch the White Sox, who have a three-game lead over Toronto and a five-game lead over Baltimore with just six games remaining. The two AL East foes face off in Baltimore in the first game on the slate this Monday, with the headline being the Jays welcoming back last year’s postseason hero Trey Yesavage from the IL.
Mayo has been one of the Orioles’ best hitters lately and has gone 2-for-5 with a homer in his previous matchups against Yesavage. The 24-year-old has 24 homers on the season, with 10 of those long balls in his 42 games since August 1. He has hit .279 over that span, raising his average to .229 for the season.
More recently, he has five homers in his last 12 games, while posting an impressive 22.2% barrel rate. He has at least one barrel in four of his last five games and smashed his 24th homer last Tuesday. in a very unique way.
The rest of his home runs have been a little more traditional, and his very good contact metrics lately indicate he could get a hold of a pitch from the Jays to go yard this Monday night.
Daylen Lile Hit a Home Run (+508)
Lile and the Nationals will face a pair of righties on Monday night as they visit the Tigers. Comerica Park isn’t an especially homer-friendly environment, but the odds are longer as a result and with the smaller slate, it gives us a chance to chase some value with Lile.
Lile has hit 22 long balls this year, including four in his last 17 games. He has hit safely in five of his last six contests, going 8-for-22 (.364) with a double, a triple, and a pair of homers in that short stretch, resulting in a .467 wOBA and .409 ISO. He hit his 22nd homer on Saturday in St. Louis.
On Monday night, he’ll face rookie River Ryan of the Tigers, who was part of the return from the Tarik Skubal trade. Since Ryan has been hurt most of the season, he probably won’t work deep into the game, and the Tigers plan to use Keider Montero as a “piggy back” option after Ryan departs. Montero has been effective in a variety of roles, but he has allowed 17 homers this season, with lefties like Lile smashing 12 of those homers and posting a .295 wOBA and 8.7% barrel rate against him on the season.
Since Lile has been heating up and will get to take on the pair of righties, he’ll be on the strong side of his splits on Monday, making him a great value option with odds over 5:1.
Walker Jenkins to Hit a Home Run (+840)
Let’s close out Monday’s home run props with a real swing for the fences. Rookie Walker Jenkins made his long-awaited MLB debut this season, and the smooth-swinging lefty is in a good spot in San Francisco on Monday.
Jenkins hit 12 homers in his 73 games in the minors this season, but he has already hit three homers in his 20 games in the MLB, including connecting on home runs in back-to-back games over the weekend in Anaheim. He homered in the ninth inning to tie the game on Thursday night, and on Friday, he was back at it again.
Jenkins jumped to the leadoff spot on Sunday for the first time in his career, and he went 1-for-5 with a single. He has hit safely in four straight games, going 9-for-17 (.529) and looks totally locked in at the dish.
On Monday night, the 21-year-old will take on Giants starter Blade Tidwell. Tidwell is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA in his 53 1/3 innings this season. He has actually struggled more at home, where he has a 5.88 ERA and has allowed five homers in 26 innings. Lefties like Jenkins have hit six of the seven homers he has served up this season and have a .381 wOBA and 12.8% barrel rate against Tidwell.
Especially if he’s at the top of the order, Jenkins brings outstanding value against Tidwell as he looks to continue his push to the finish and lock in a spot in the outfield at the start of next season.
