Closing out the Week 2 NFL Sunday slate, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be facing off with the Colts. Kansas City made a statement with their Week 1 victory, dismantling the Broncos 31-10, and will look to carry this momentum against this 0-1 Colts team.
Looking at the odds for the Sunday Night Football matchup, the Chiefs enter as six-point home favorites with -265 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Colts are +215 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at O/U 46.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action across DraftKings Sportsbook. You can check out game previews and plenty more on DraftKings Network. But for now, let’s look at my top Mahomes prop bet for the Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Pick vs. Broncos
Patrick Mahomes to Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Kenneth Walker stole the show in his Chiefs’ debut, rushing for 173 yards and a touchdown. Walker is the best running back Kanasas City has had during this era of Chiefs football, but it should still be made clear that Kansas City’s outlook still flows through Patrick Mahomes.
The three-time Super Bowl MVP looked like himself in his first game back from last year’s season-ending ACL tear. He showed a willingness to use his legs and completed 15 of his 27 pass attempts for 184 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Walker III’s impact and the blowout nature of the game limited the need for much impact through the air. While Denver did not carry their expected level of impact, this is a strong defensive unit that does an excellent job limiting big plays over the top. Expect a different outlook in tonight’s game, facing a Colts team that was shredded for 41 points by the Baltimore Ravens. This includes Lamar Jackson throwing for 324 yards through the air against them.
Throughout his career, Mahomes averages 284.4 passing yards per game, which is the highest rate in NFL history. He has never averaged fewer than 245.5 passing yards per game over a season. Mahomes also threw for a season-high 352 passing yards last season in the matchup against this Colts team.
Indianapolis put up 23 points in Week 1 against the Ravens, and this is a Chiefs’ defense that is already dealing with some notable injuries. It is going to take some points for Kansas City to get a win, and Mahomes will be at the epicenter of this. The Colts are more vulnerable to over-the-top attacks, and searching for big plays will be a bigger part of the game plan for Kansas City this week.
Mahomes has thrown for over 219.5 passing yards in 103 of his 127 career games, and cleared this bar in 11 of his 14 games played last year. Don’t expect the addition of Walker III to change the offensive approach to the level that this prop line suggests, and take advantage before the market resettles.
