Michael Pittman Jr. ran routes on 84% of Pittsburgh’s dropbacks in the Steelers opener. With Pittman now officially out, Mike McCarthy has to replace a receiver involved in nearly every passing situation. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, is still trying to establish what this new 2026 version of his Steelers offense can do most excellently. It’s yet to differentiate itself, really, and it’s already banged up. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Patriots vs. Steelers prediction, preview
Rodgers averaged 5.5 yards per attempt against Atlanta last week. DK Metcalf caught four of ten targets, and New England can assign Christian Gonzalez to him even with fellow starting corner Carlton Davis out. Against man coverage since 2025, Rodgers has averaged 5.63 yards per attempt on 158 dropbacks. I’d make him find completions elsewhere; he’s got no Kenny Gainwell this year, but he can still look for Roman Wilson over the top, or Pat Freiermuth over the middle.
Freiermuth and Jaylen Warren each caught five passes last week. They can help, although Warren played only 37% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps as the Steelers rotated backs by possession. I expect him to see more this week. A good running game between Rico Dowdle and Warren would improve Rodgers’ chances of having shorter third downs to convert. But New England allowed running backs just 77.1 rushing yards per game last season, and their rush defense was missing Milton Williams for much the second half of the year. He’s healthy, and Dre’Mont Jones should help stuff ground attacks. I’m struggling to get Pittsburgh to 20 points, here.
Drake Maye has averaged 8.89 yards per attempt against Cover 3 and Cover 4 since 2025, across 293 dropbacks, and Pittsburgh leaned heavily on both in its opener. He also threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers last season. I’d give him considerably more credit here than his Seattle performances suggest. New England’s running game concerns me more: the Patriots ranked 25th in rushing EPA last season before finishing last in Week 1. Until they punish lighter boxes, opposing coordinators can keep their safeties deep. Maye has succeeded against those looks, but with A.J. Brown out, he’ll have to find another receiver to threaten them downfield.
Pittsburgh’s new defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, has already defended Maye this way when he was a DC for the Raiders. His Las Vegas squad played zone on 90.6% of Maye’s dropbacks last season, disguising coverage with defenders who threatened to rush before retreating into passing lanes. Graham called zone on all 26 Atlanta dropbacks last week. With A.J. Brown on injured reserve, Maye has fewer options for challenging that coverage downfield.
Steelers vs. Patriots pick, best bet
Hunter Henry could benefit from Brown’s absence and turn the underneath approach into the scoring funnel. Since 2025, he has averaged 2.21 yards per route against Cover 3 and Cover 4, the coverages Pittsburgh favored in its opener. TreVeyon Henderson returns to a backfield facing a defense that just allowed Bijan Robinson eight catches for 90 yards. Steelers corner Joey Porter Jr. is also out. Maye should complete enough passes to give New England the advantage.
I have the Patriots reaching 23, with Pittsburgh relying heavily on shorter completions against a defense that can put Gonzalez on its best receiver. Both offenses should need several successful plays to finish a possession. I’ll take under 42 at -112, including the push at 24-18.
Best bet: Under 42 points (-112)
Projected score: Patriots 23, Steelers 17.
