Iowa QB Hank Brown completed 21 of 30 passes against Iowa State, helping the Hawkeyes move into position for Caden Buhr’s winning field goal. I’m betting we see another efficient afternoon from the Hawkeyes’ quarterback, especially behind a line replacing three starters. Iowa followed its 40-0 opener against Northern Illinois with that 16-13 win last week. Now, Northern Iowa visits Kinnick after just having beaten Drake 56-14. Panthers quarterback Jaxon Dailey has been chucking it quite well himself, albeit against much friendlier defenses than the vicious one waiting Saturday.Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Northern Iowa Panthers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Iowa vs. UNI prediction, preview
Dailey has completed 70.6% of his passes at 10.37 yards per attempt, including three touchdowns through the air against Drake. He’ll find much less room Saturday. Iowa allowed Iowa State nine first downs and has conceded 3.5 yards per play through two games, despite Phil Parker having to replace eight defensive starters. I’m especially encouraged by the 2.2 yards allowed per rush. Unless the Panthers block considerably better than Iowa’s first two opponents, Dailey will spend too many third downs needing a substantial completion.
Brown hung up 191 passing yards against the Cyclones, and Iowa has averaged 5.8 per attempt for the season. Pick Six places the Hawkeyes near the bottom nationally in its explosive-pass measure. I like having a quarterback who can complete the throw underneath and keep the offense moving. Reaching the end zone through those completions, though, could require a dozen snaps or more. Northern Iowa would have several opportunities to force a field-goal attempt along the way.
Kamari Moulton offers a much swifter, niftier way downfield. Against Northern Illinois, he ran for 183 yards on 11 carries, scoring from 50 and 37 yards out. I’d be foolish to project an uneventful afternoon simply because Kirk Ferentz keeps handing him the ball. Northern Iowa has allowed 74.5 rushing yards per game against FCS opponents, so the Panthers have at least tackled their first two assignments competently.
UNI vs. Iowa pick, best bet
It’s true that punt returner Evan James can spoil an under before the Hawkeyes offense gets back on the field. He returned a punt 77 yards for a touchdown in the opener, and Dailey could compound that sort of damage by forcing an interception against tighter coverage. I have Iowa reaching 35 and Northern Iowa seven over roughly 11 meaningful possessions apiece. Dailey has thrown accurately enough for me to allow the Panthers a touchdown, although Parker’s front should make a second sustained scoring drive harder to assemble.
Under 49.5 is my play. Iowa is still developing its passing offense and Northern Iowa needs to sustain drives against a defense already making FBS opponents work for their first downs. Not sure it happens.
Best bet: Under 49.5 (-110).
Projected score: Iowa 35, Northern Iowa 7.
Best Bet: Iowa vs. UNI u49.5 total points scored (-110)
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