Something special is brewing in South Bend. #3 Notre Dame (2-0) has its eyes set on a national championship, with more than enough firepower for a deep postseason run. Still, given their middling schedule, the Fighting Irish can’t afford many slip-ups. Michigan State (2-0), a once-great program mired in mediocrity, is in desperate need of a statement win. Can the Spartans pull off a massive upset against their longtime rivals tonight?
The Fighting Irish are listed as 28.5-point favorites over the Spartans, with the total set at O/U 51.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Week 3 matchup.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame prediction, preview
Four straight sub-.500 seasons have dampened the mood around East Lansing. However, Michigan State has managed to reel off two straight wins to open the season. Granted, those were both victories at home against MAC opponents; Saturday’s matchup represents a major step up in competition. Much of the responsibility tonight will fall on quarterback Alessio Milivojevic’s shoulders. After taking over the starting job last season, he’s carried that over into a solid month of September. Over two games, the sophomore has thrown for 419 yards and three touchdowns. If there’s one thing Milivojevic does well, it’s ball control. Over 12 appearances at the collegiate level, he’s sporting a minuscule 1.8% interception rate.
Still, avoiding mistakes is just one aspect of this matchup. If the Spartans are going to keep things close, they’ll need to keep a loaded Irish offense on the sidelines. That means dominating on the ground with running back Camryn Edwards. The UConn transfer has impressed so far, leading the Big Ten with 250 rushing yards on 48 attempts (5.2 YPC). Still, as previously mentioned, he’s recorded those numbers against MAC defenses. Notre Dame is allowing just 2.0 yards per rush this season, eighth-best in the nation. It’s worth noting that the Irish have recorded those numbers against ground-heavy Rice and Wisconsin offenses. On the flip side, Michigan State ranks second among all FBS schools this season in time of possession.
It’s not always a fast start, but Notre Dame knows how to put up points. Sophomore quarterback CJ Carr is the real deal, possessing enough talent to flirt with a Heisman this season. Over two games, he’s already produced 492 passing yards and six touchdowns. Those numbers would likely be even higher if the games had been closer. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are gone, but this running game remains effective as well. Aneyas Williams leads the way with 119 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Backups Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton have chipped in as well. Wide receiver Jordan Faison is a name to watch in this one; he paces the team with eight catches for 135 yards.
A talented group of Notre Dame pass catchers could do some serious damage tonight. The Spartans allowed 231.3 passing yards per game to opponents last season, second-worst in the Big Ten. If you’re looking for a glimmer of hope, this group was more effective against the run. That’ll need to continue this evening on the road. Michigan State’s defense has some talent, headlined by linebackers Brady Pretzlaff and Jordan Hall. The latter is dealing with an elbow injury but is expected to play tonight. Up front, edge Eli Coenen has already racked up three sacks. The Irish will be missing several key reserves along their offensive line.
Best Bet: Michigan State +28.5 (-110)
Despite covering the spread in each of their first two matchups, the Irish have taken some time to get it going on offense. Although I expect the home team to pick up a third straight win, this could be a sloppy game. It’s expected to pour tonight in South Bend, setting up a potentially mistake-filled matchup between these rivals. Considering the talent gap, any change in on-field conditions favors Michigan State. The Spartans should make every effort early to feed Edwards and eat up the clock. Should that occur, it’s difficult to envision Notre Dame winning by more than four touchdowns.
