QB Josh Hoover has settled into Indiana’s offense quickly, and Cignetti loves it. It means the old bulldog can spend another week being Cignetti and demanding the ceiling out of his players. The Hoosiers beat North Texas 52-16, then Howard 55-0, and Hoover threw four touchdowns in that second game. Western Kentucky comes to Bloomington after allowing 119 points in two losses—the difference is stark. The Hilltoppers have too much to work on against a hotrod that’s just about to throttle into another gear. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Indiana vs. WKU prediction, preview
Georgia scored 70 on WKU last week, and Gunner Stockton needed only the Bulldogs’ first five possessions to throw five touchdowns. Western Kentucky had already lost 49-14 to Nevada. That earlier game bothers me more, given how readily Georgia can overwhelm this level of opponent. Nevada found ample room, too. Hoover gets to attack these same defenders today.
Hoover has helped Indiana average 13.8 yards per pass attempt, the highest figure in early national rankings. Of course that will cool as the schedule improves. Indiana has averaged a whopping 5.7 yards per rush. Western Kentucky will probably bring another man down, which then means Hoover gets a more inviting throw behind him. Cignetti will keep making the defense sacrifice on early downs, going for the kill on the later ones.
Western Kentucky will need to extend its own drives to interrupt that work. Howard managed only 57 total yards against Indiana, but North Texas did considerably better with 367. The Hoosiers nevertheless averaged 7.9 yards per play to the Mean Green’s 5.5, separating despite conceding some lengthy possessions. They also rank fourth in negative-play percentage. I expect enough TFLs and failed conversions to keep the Hilltoppers from sustaining drives. They may score once or twice, though.
WKU vs. Indiana pick, best bet
So covering 44.5 still asks a great deal, including productive work from Indiana’s reserves. The Hoosiers have scored their first 107 points on roughly 54 offensive plays per game. They score lightning-quick, man. And against a defense that has conceded so much against both Nevada and Georgia already, I expect the backup backs to find room as well. I don’t expect a bounce-back for this secondary at all.
I land at 56-7 and will lay the 44.5 with Indiana. Several long Western Kentucky drives would make that much harder. I’m backing the Hoosiers’ front to force the punts, then Hoover to exploit a defense that has yet to solve either the passing or rushing problems its first two opponents presented.
Best bet: Indiana -44.5 (-112).
Projected score: Indiana 56, Western Kentucky 7.
Best Bet: Indiana -44.5 (-110) vs. WKU
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