Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday evening’s game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Maryland vs. VT player props
Malik Washington over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
Malik Washington did considerably more against UConn than hang an elite completion percentage on their defense, though that he did indeed. Maryland’s quarterback finished with 347 passing yards and closed the game with 18 straight completions, and this all came after a rather uneven start to the game. Washington’s elite ability to extend plays and make possessions drag on a defense is the perfect matchup for Virginia Tech’s rather disruptive front.
The Hokies have already hunted offenses for plenty of negative plays, but their back-end coverage has allowed 8.1 YPA. Opponents typically look for the killshot on VT. Maryland’s protection offers a plausible way to for routes to develop such that Washington could find those outlets; disruptive though VT is, the Terps have only allowed sacks on 1% of their pass attempts.
Tech’s pressure could wreck the afternoon if it arrives before those routes develop, for sure. I’ve trimmed Washington’s expectation to around 290 yards for that reason, although a game priced around a field goal should keep him throwing well into the second half. Maryland has given him enough protection to make it hell on the Hokies. I want over 267.5, and another stretch of those calmly completed short throws with some juicy YsAC would be just delicious.
Ethan Grunkemeyer under 254.5 passing yards (-115)
On the other side of the ball, we’ll go low. Ethan Grunkemeyer’s 327-yard performance against Old Dominion was spectacular, particularly his crisp connection with tight end Luke Reynolds. The more troubling detail for Virginia Tech was the 89-yard rushing total. It may have just been because the passing game was firing on all cylinders. But if the Hokies cannot generate better early-down gains on the ground in College Park, Maryland can just key in on Grunkemeyer and snuff his arm out.
The Terps have 10 sacks through two games, with five last week against UConn. They’re not going to sack VT five times, however. And Luke Reynolds gives Grunkemeyer an extremely reliable target when the pocket tightens from Terrapin terror. I expect, however, more of Grunekemeyer’s dropbacks on Saturday to end without productive yardage, especially if Maryland can avoid committing extra defenders to stop the run.
Reynolds should still help Grunkemeyer assemble a few good possessions; I have the quarterback around 235 yards. Getting there may require more work than last week did. If Maryland keeps generating pressure without sacrificing coverage, a growing attempt count could include plenty of throws made simply to escape the rush. I’m taking under 254.5, conscious that a late Virginia Tech deficit would give Grunkemeyer another chance to collect yards against a defense protecting its lead.
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