Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday’s sure-to-be rockfight between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Georgia Bulldogs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Arkansas vs. Georgia player props
Gunner Stockton o224.5 passing yards (-115)
Gunner Stockton has needed only 32 attempts to throw for 436 yards and eight touchdowns, which is a fairly extravagant return on very little playing time. Georgia’s starting quarterback handled only the first five possessions in each opening blowout.
Arkansas will most certainly demand more snaps from Gunner, even if it struggles to ultimately make the game ultracompetitive. The Razorbacks have allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and Georgia has kept the same starting offensive line together through two games after cycling through combinations early last season. That continuity allows routes to develop longer, and affords Stockton better chances to find his second read before the rush gets home.
Kirby Smart has had very little reason to keep Stockton occupied late so far this year, and we really may see that again here. But even around 27 attempts at a reduced 9.3 yards apiece would nevertheless put Stockton near 250. Arkansas’s secondary can improve on its Utah performance and still allow that yardage before Smart hands the keys to his reserves. At 224.5, I’ll back Stockton to make good use of the additional work his first SEC assignment should provide.
Nate Frazier o79.5 rushing yards (-115)
Ten carries across two games would usually send me looking elsewhere for a rushing over, and I get if you want to do so yourself. But Nate Frazier has somehow squeezed four touchdowns into that scant workload. Most of his time, however, he’s spent much of the watching Georgia’s reserves. A competitive first half in Fayetteville, like Stocktoin above, would do his rushing total a considerable favor.
The Bulldogs have averaged 8.2 yards per rush behind that aforementioned unchanged starting line. Arkansas’s rush defense has allowed a more respectable 3.4, so we’ll reduce Georgia’s expected efficiency substantially for this road game. Frazier can still reach the mid-90s with 16 carries at about six yards each. We wouldn’t need him banging away into the fourth quarter to see him get that.
Chauncey Bowens is the RB2/slammer part of this backfield, and Stockton can finish drives with his own legs. Those are the primary reasons I’m favor a modest yardage threshold for Frazier here as opposed to amore expensive touchdown proposition. I expect Arkansas to keep Georgia’s regular offense on the field longer than Tennessee State or Western Kentucky managed, giving Frazier enough work to clear 79.5 without needing another afternoon of touchdowns on seemingly every touch. He’ll still probably score, though. So go ahead and parlay it. Live a little.
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