Bear witness to the devastation before you: Nico Collins’ hamstring; DJ Moore’s shoulder; DeZhaun Stribling’s ankle; Jordan Mason’s…thumb. Fallen soldiers strewn about. Josh Allen, basically, stands alone there against the horizon, a monolithic silhouette of a great fantasy-scoring colossus. We are at war, friends, and the next-man-up mentality is becoming as ironclad a platitude for fantasy managers as it is for coachspeak and player-parroting to the media. Here already in Week 2, most of us are desperate for value and edge.
Happy Fantasy Friday once more, friends. I’m back with the Five Lists of Five: Week 2 edition. Helmets on. Back to marching.
For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start running backs for fantasy football Week 2. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start wide receivers for fantasy football Week 2
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 2 (TK)
- Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 2 (TK)
- Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 2 (TK)
Fantasy football Week 2: Top five running backs to start
Aaron Jones, MIN (at Bears)
Minnesota split 27 opening-week carries between Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, with Mason as the favorite, having taking 15 to Jones’s 12. Then the Vikings suddenly put Mason on injured reserve with a thumb injury, leaving Jones atop a markedly different backfield headed into Week 2. DeeJay Dallas will spell him as the RB2, but Minnesota no longer has the same established early-down partner to rotate through entire possessions. And that’s on top of, as of this writing, starting-QB uncertainty.
Chicago offers AJ33 some room to exploit, for sure. The Bears allowed 2.68 adjusted yards before contact last season, second-most in the NFL, and Chuba Hubbard opened this season with 49 rushing yards on 10 attempts for the Panthers in Week 1 against these Bears. It shouldn’t be too hard for a veteran like Jones, thrust into a volume role, to keep the running game on schedule.
I’m less ambitious about the receiving work reaching former heights: Jones and Mason each ran routes on only 23% of the Week 1 dropbacks. Minnesota also has to account for Brian O’Neill’s knee and the still-unsettled quarterback decision. Allowing for those complications, I still see 15-18 carries, a couple of catches, and approximately 75-90 scrimmage yards for Jones. He gets my RB2 start as Minnesota tries to string together possessions and keep Chicago’s offense waiting.
David Montgomery, HOU (vs. Bengals)
David Montgomery scored three times in his Houston debut, an outrageous return on 60 rushing yards that screams sell-high. Week 1 was simply an expression of what happens when the touchdowns arrive in bunches. Everyone’s banking on the fall-off immediately in Week 2. Houston nevertheless gave him all five backfield opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Fantasy Points taillied him at 18.9 XFP, far below his actual fantasy finish, but still substantial for someone we drafted so late. It was nice to see Houston deliberately feed him where scoring became likeliest, is the point. I expect that to continue.
Woody Marks will keep rotating in, and you’d imagine he’d see quite a few passing snaps in a game against Cincinnati’s offense. He had a a 57.5% snap share and 42.9% route share in Week 1. Houston can maintain that split and still give Montgomery enough short-yardag, high-value work to matter. Cincinnati allowed an NFL-high 119.6 rushing yards per game to RBs last season, and just conceded 45 yards on Bucky Irving’s eight carries in Week 1—not to mention the ways they got beat on RB checkdowns. Montgomery could even see a hurried C.J. Stroud dump-off or two.
Nico Collins’s hamstring injury aside, I think C.J. Stroud and the Texans should be able to move on this Cincinnati defense. I’m looking for around 18 touches and 70-85 scrimmage yards, with Houston still favoring Montgomery when they reache the 10.
Cam Skattebo, NYG (at Rams)
Cam Skattebo returned from that (back-)flippin’ major ankle injury not even a full year ago, and still carried 18 times for 81 yards and a touchdown on Sunday Night Football last week. He reminded Dallas, and the NFL primetime world, that tackling him is still a tectonic event. Devin Singletary rotated in quite a bit, which both enticed and aggravated fantasy managers; he caught four passes on the Giants’ final scoring drive, while Skattebo finished without a single target. Skatt fumbled late, which likely shifted that final possession 100% to Singletary’s number. but New York had already called Singletary’s number multiple times on passing downs throughout the game.
After commanding a 15.1% target share across his previous five full games, Skattebo needs to reclaim routes before I restore much receiving work to his projection. It should regress to the mean as he heals, but it’s not there right now. John Harbaugh did, however, keep feeding him on the ground. Against a Rams front that allowed McCaffrey and Kaelon Black 133 rushing yards on 24 carries, and now lacks Myles Garrett, that should only benefit Skatt’s ceiling.
I expect the Giants to keep this game competitive enough to run through most of the evening. Pencil Skattebo in for 16-19 carries and roughly 70-85 rushing yards.
Jeremiyah Love, ARI (vs. Seahawks)
Arizona finished its opener with Tyler Allgeier ahead of Jeremiyah Love in carries, 17 to 11. Arrive at that box score late enough and you miss how the Cardinals got there: Allgeier took nine fourth-quarter carries to Love’s one after Arizona built its lead on the Chargers. Through three quarters, Love actually led 10 carries to eight. Fantasy mangers should value far more the handoffs which helped Arizona get ahead, and those went to Love.
Love also edged Allgeier in XFP, 15.2 to 13.9, with Arizona getting him that goal-line touchdown on their opening drive. He can plant, redirect, and accelerate in narrow gaps, catching the next defender before has properly gathered himself. It’s already, too, with Gibbs-like quickness. I’m so impatient for more of that spectacle, even whileTyler Allgeier keeps enough work to rule out a feature-back rookie season.
Seattle just limited Rhamondre Stevenson to 51 yards on 18 carries, so Arizona may need Love catching passes as well as cutting through the front. Give Love 12-15 carries and two or three catches—my working estimate—and I see around 60-75 scrimmage yards. In a thin RB2 slot where I need upside, give me love Love. It’ll be a tighter game, anyways, which should keep Arizona’s most versatile rookie on the field and involved.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (vs. Steelers)
They go left, I go right. TreVeyon Henderson practiced fully both Wednesday and Thursday, which means the Pats are likely ready to deploy their preferred backfield arrangement on Sunday. Everyone seems to think that means TreVeyon inherits RB1 touches. And, sure, Rhamondre looked a bit sluggish in the first game. But the Patriots already favored Rhamondre Stevenson with Henderson available then, giving Stevenson the larger snap share, 70% to 31%, and more receptions, 12 to five. He seems to always have the trust of McDaniels in this offense, for better or worse.
Against Seattle, New England fed Stevenson 18 carries and six targets. He caught five passes for 44 yards, salvaging useful PPR production despite averaging 2.8 YPC (64.3% route share; 17.0 XFP). Henderson will reclaim touches, but the playoff split gives me reason to expect Stevenson to retain meaningful passing-down, too. Unlike, as everyone expects, a simple 30-point TreVeyon debut in which he vacuums all opportunities.
Pittsburgh’s front can wreck a rushing play at any given moment, yet it allowed 2.35 adjusted yards before contact per RB carry last season, eighth-most. Stevenson has a lot of room to improve on the Seattle afternoon, and he could start by running over some of this Steelers defense. I’m estimating 12-15 carries, three or four catches, and 65-80 scrimmage yards.
