Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s full slate: Alex Bregman and Teoscar Hernandez.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | +526 | Chase Burns is starting this game for the Reds, but over the past two weeks, that’s actually signaled a piggyback strategy with Brandon Williamson. Unlike Burns, Williamson has struggled in 2026, surrendering 1.65 opponent home runs per nine with a 9.7% opponent barrel rate. That’s all added up to a 6.36 xERA over 43.2 innings. Not only does Bregman have the advantage in an opposite-hand matchup, but he’s leading MLB in wOBA (.427) and wRC+ (174) since the All-Star break. |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +358 | The veteran outfielder has been on fire since August 30, slashing .375/.485/.679 with a 215 wRC+ and more than a quarter of the home runs he’s hit for the season as a whole. Also, the Dodgers will draw left-handed rookie Cesar Perdomo on Friday night, and Hernandez owns a .273 ISO and a 152 wRC+ in his 139 plate appearances versus LHPs in 2026. Perdomo had a 7.15 xERA in Triple-A. He’s not ready for this level. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Alex Bregman 1+ Home Run (+526)
This matchup for Bregman is a little complex, but it’s also likely the reason his odds are so long and tantalizing. Allow me to explain. Chase Burns is starting this game for the Reds, but over the past two weeks, that’s actually signaled a piggyback strategy with Brandon Williamson, as the uber-talented Burns has been limited to three innings of work. Unlike Burns, Williamson has struggled in 2026, surrendering 1.65 opponent home runs per nine with a 9.7% opponent barrel rate. That’s all added up to a 6.36 xERA over 43.2 innings of work. In other words: Williamson creates a great setting in which to hunt for a long ball. Not only does Bregman have the advantage in an opposite-hand matchup, but he’s leading MLB in wOBA (.427) and wRC+ (174) since the All-Star break. Let’s just say he’s seeing the ball well.
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+358)
There’s a lot to like about Teoscar in this market. First and foremost, the veteran outfielder has been on fire since August 30, slashing .375/.485/.679 with a 215 wRC+ and more than a quarter of the home runs he’s hit for the season as a whole. Secondly, the Dodgers will draw left-handed rookie Cesar Perdomo on Friday night, and Hernandez owns a .273 ISO and a 152 wRC+ in his 139 plate appearances versus LHPs in 2026. So… Who exactly is Perdomo? The 24-year-old has split his campaign across three levels, starting with 15 appearances in Double-A. Then, following a 7.15 xERA in nine starts at Triple-A, Perdomo got the call to the majors at the beginning of the month. Needless to say, he’s probably not ready for the assignment, and a 47.8% opponent hard hit rate illustrates that point pretty easily.
