Four straight wins have pushed the Rangers (76-76) into a tie atop the American League West. Tonight, Texas will go for a series sweep against the Red Sox (82-70) at home. Boston, for all its success this season, has yet to clinch a spot in the playoffs. Can the visitors get it done on Thursday in a battle between postseason hopefuls?
The Red Sox are favorites (-123) over the Rangers; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Boston and Texas on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Rangers pick, best bet today
- Red Sox ML (-123): Gray, facing an offense that struggles hitting right-handed pitching, shouldn’t have much difficulty in this one. On the other side, Texas’ bullpen doesn’t possess many standout relievers. Given the disparity on the mound, Boston holds a clear advantage tonight.
Red Sox vs. Rangers prediction, preview
Sonny Gray toes the slab for Boston, in the midst of a career year. The 36-year-old has been nothing short of dominant during his debut season in Beantown. Over 156.2 innings pitched (27 starts), he’s produced a 2.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 140 strikeouts (8.0 K/9). With numbers such as those, a top-five finish in AL Cy Young voting wouldn’t come as a surprise. The veteran isn’t a strikeout artist, although he can generate some whiffs. Where Gray truly shines is command and keeping the ball from elevating. He owns an 80th percentile walk rate (6.6%) and 75th percentile ground ball rate (46.8%). The three-time All-Star has allowed three earned runs or less in 23 of his 27 outings this season.
Generating some runs won’t be easy against a formidable arm such as Gray. The Rangers do have a handful of standout hitters, including the red-hot Corey Seager. Still, this group hasn’t lived up to its collective talent. Texas is averaging 4.18 runs per game, sixth-fewest in the majors. Most of this lineup’s success has come against southpaws as well. When facing right-handed pitching, the Rangers have delivered a lackluster .696 OPS. That’s only good enough for 26th in baseball this season. When Gray faced this group back on June 12th, he allowed one run and five hits over six innings of work.
Toeing the slab for Texas this evening will be Tyler Alexander. The lefty will be acting as an opener, having spent most of his time this season as a reliever. Through 68 appearances (four starts), the southpaw has recorded a 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 57 strikeouts (7.7 K/9). He’s allowed three runs over his previous 11.0 innings of work (2.45 ERA). Even if Alexander does his job, there’s no guarantee for the rest of this game. The Rangers wield a 4.45 bullpen ERA, ninth-worst in the big leagues.
The Red Sox haven’t been on fire at the plate in recent weeks. They’ve scored 34 runs over their last ten contests, fifth-worst in baseball during that stretch. With that being said, the team is fifth in the majors with a .747 OPS against left-handed pitching. That could spell trouble for Alexander tonight. Boston is tenth in batting average (.247) and ninth in on-base percentage (.321). In comparison, Texas pitchers are below league average in both categories.
At the end of the day, this comes down to Gray’s dominance for Boston this season. There’s no reason to assume a slip-up on Thursday against Texas’ lackluster offense, especially at pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field. On the other side, the Rangers will be entrusting their mediocre bullpen to keep pace with a Cy Young candidate. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success tonight.
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