Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s mini evening slate: Juan Soto and Spencer Torkelson.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | +299 | Aaron Nola allowed two more home runs in his last start. That’s 34 long balls conceded for the veteran right-hander in 2026, which is tied for the most of any pitcher in MLB. Meanwhile, Soto enters tonight’s action with a 100th percentile expected slugging rate (.573) and a 99th percentile expected wOBA (.412). He also owns five home runs and a 1.166 OPS against the long-time Phillies ace in well over 60 career PAs. |
| Spencer Torkelson | +435 | Torkelson has been swinging a red-hot bat since the calendar flipped to September, slashing .295/.392/.636 with a .341 ISO and a 184 wRC+. Crucially, Torkelson has been making a lot of loud contact in the month, as well, posting a season-best 51.7% hard hit rate. On the other side, Erick Fedde has surrendered a whopping 2.00 opponent home runs per nine as a starter in 2026. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+299)
While Aaron Nola has certainly been pitching better across the past couple of months, the home run issue remains. Look no further than Nola’s last outing against the Braves. Two earned runs over 6.1 innings, both runs scored on solo homers. That’s 34 long balls allowed for the veteran right-hander in 2026, which is tied with Shota Imanaga for the most of any pitcher in MLB. Every Mets hitter with a pulse has the opportunity to add No. 35 to Nola’s stat sheet on Thursday night, yet obviously Juan Soto stands out amongst the pack. Not only does the $765 million man enter tonight’s action with a 100th percentile expected slugging rate (.573) and a 99th percentile expected wOBA (.412), but Soto has also feasted on Nola throughout the duo’s careers. In a sample well over 60 plate appearances, Soto has five home runs and a 1.166 OPS against the long-time Phillies ace.
Spencer Torkelson 1+ Home Run (+435)
It’s a case of too little, too late for the former first-overall pick, but Torkelson has been swinging a red-hot bat since the calendar flipped to September, slashing .295/.392/.636 with a .341 ISO and a 184 wRC+. Crucially, Torkelson has been making a lot of loud contact in the month, as well, posting a season-best 51.7% hard hit rate. Remember, Torkelson hit the 100th long ball of his career earlier this season. He has more than enough raw power to trust in a good matchup — and this projects to be a pretty good matchup. Erick Fedde has surrendered a whopping 2.00 opponent home runs per nine as a starter in 2026. There’s still a chance that the White Sox decide to use him behind an opener, but either way, he’ll be highly involved in this contest.
