The WNBA playoff teams are set, but all eight seeds are still up for grabs with four games left. The Minnesota Lynx are oh-so-close to clinching the top seed, two games up on the Golden State Valkyries and holding the tiebreaker. Head coach Cheryl Reeve’s team will not be taking their foot off the gas anytime soon. In their way are the New York Liberty, currently in a three-way tie for the sixth seed. This one should be a banger.
The Lynx enter as 6.5-point road favorites with -250 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Liberty are +205 underdogs, with the game total set at 176.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Liberty-Lynx matchup.
Liberty vs. Lynx Preview
This is the rubber match of the three-game series between these two rivals. New York captured the first matchup at home, winning 99-86 behind a monster game from Breanna Stewart. Minnesota got its revenge in the second game, taking a 90-85 win behind big offensive performances from Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles. That’s nothing new for the rookie superstar, who has been cooking teams left and right this season. Bask in the glory of her passing highlight reel from this season:
The good news for both teams is that they’re as healthy as they can be heading into this game. New York remains without Satou Sabally, who is dealing with complications from a concussion; Sabally’s repeated absences this season have conditioned them to expect her absence, and they’ve adapted.
For the Liberty, the key is to slow down Miles as much as you can. Her downhill playmaking gets the whole team involved; McBride gets open threes, Courtney Williams attacks off the catch, and Napheesa Collier hurts you all over the floor. Fellow rookie Pauline Astier figures to see a lot of time matched up with Miles, and her job is to turn drives into contested shots. Much easier said than done. There’s also a lot of pressure on Jonquel Jones and Stewie to be sound in their defensive rotations.
For the Lynx, it’s about making everyone but Breanna Stewart beat you. Stewie is once again playing MVP-level hoops and is all but assured of a top-three finish in that awards race. Her downhill and midrange games are nearly impossible to counter, with her absurd length giving her the ability to get up a shot over anybody. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Lynx throw early help at her to force passes. Sabrina Ionescu is no slouch herself, but the Lynx will trust in Courtney Williams to pick her up.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Liberty vs. Lynx Pick, Best Bet
Collier is the X-factor here. In previous matchups, the Liberty could take more risks with Collier sidelined; now that she’s back in the lineup, they have to be a lot more careful. I doubt that New York’s defense can keep up with this deep and talented Minnesota attack, and they won’t have the firepower to make up for that on the other end of the floor.
