The college football season is off to the races, with a Week 3 matchup taking place between the Buffalo Bulls and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Buffalo is off to a 1-1 start to the season, while Penn State has cruised to a 2-0 start in which it has won by a combined score of 102-9. This is the fourth meeting between these programs in history, with Penn State winning all three games thus far in comfortable fashion.
Looking at the odds for this matchup, Penn State enters as a 41.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 50.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 3 CFB matchup.
Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions
Buffalo Bulls
The Buffalo Bulls enter this matchup with a 1-1 record this year. They kicked off the season with a 21-17 victory over the University of Albany. This was a tightly contested battle in which Albany drove down the field with a chance to take the lead as the game wound down. Buffalo ultimately secured the stop on a goal-to-go situation with 1:07 remaining on the clock. Plenty of the issues were self-inflicted for the Bulls in this matchup, as they racked up 10 penalties for 119 yards and an untimely fumble that led to an Albany field goal.
Buffalo dropped in the loss column in its most recent matchup, falling 33-20 to Florida International. This loss was even more commanding than the final score looked, as Florida International jumped out to a 21-3 lead and held full control from this point on. Buffalo was outgained 540-308 in total yards, turned the ball over three times, and was limited to 2.5 rushing yards per attempt despite its desired identity as a run-first football team.
Through the opening two games, Buffalo is averaging 20.5 points per game, which ranks 115th out of the 138 qualifying D1 teams. Defensively, it is allowing 25.0 points per game, which ranks 90th in the country, and conceding 408.0 total yards of offense. Elijah Holmes entered the season as the starting quarterback, but Jason Wright also received some opportunities in the previous game. Neither has performed to the desired level thus far. Chance Morrow has had the most success in the offense, with 18 receptions for 218 yards and five touchdowns. Messiah Burch and Terrance Shelton headline the rushing attack, but they have combined for just 165 rushing yards through the opening two games.
The biggest matchup should be their ability to stop the run. Penn State has struggled on the ground thus far this season with just 3.9 yards per carry despite facing inferior competition and unloading a high volume of opportunities. Buffalo’s run defense has been solid so far, headlined by a pair of impressive safeties in Ronnell Davis and SaVeon Brown, as well as linebacker Stevie Bracey. Each player does a great job of sneaking up to the line of scrimmage and being disruptive.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Matt Campbell era is off to a successful 2-0 start, even if Penn State has yet to face a true test. It enters this Week 3 matchup ranked 14th in the country in the most recent AP rankings. The Nittany Lions kicked off the season with a 45-0 win over Marshall in which they outgained the Thunder Herd 487-147 and forced a pair of turnovers. Outside of a missed 52-yard field goal, Marshall was never truly in striking distance of scoring.
In the most recent matchup, the result was not quite as convincing for Penn State. It ultimately secured a 27-9 victory in the cross-state matchup with Temple, but the Owls held the Nittany Lions scoreless through the first quarter and took a 3-0 lead. The touchdown scored in the fourth quarter was the first allowed on the season. Penn State outgained Temple 416-283, but it allowed a concerning 176 rushing yards on the ground.
Through its opening pair of victories, Penn State is averaging 36.0 points per game, which ranks 52nd in the country, and it is generating 451.5 yards of offense. Defensively, the Nittany Lions lead all programs in college football with just 4.5 points per game conceded.
Campbell did a nice job bringing some familiar faces with him in the transition to Penn State, which has allowed the transition to be relatively smooth. Quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for 539 passing yards and seven touchdowns, looking the part of the caliber of talent Penn State was hoping for in his final year of collegiate football. Koby Howard leads the team with 229 receiving yards and a touchdown, while fellow Iowa State transfers Chase Sowell and Benjamin Brahmer also play key roles with four touchdowns combined already on the year. Carson Hansen is posting a team-high 132 rushing yards on the ground.
Buffalo at Penn State Pick
Penn State did not exactly blow out Temple in the way that was hoped last week, with the Nittany Lions unable to cover the 24.5-point spread. But there is some legitimate momentum surrounding the Temple football program that K.C. Keeler has inspired, and the Owls deserve credit for performing. They took good care of the ball, attacked on the ground and held up defensively.
Don’t expect Buffalo to be able to complete as structured a game plan. The margin for error is slim, and it was pushed to the limit by Albany and fell to Florida International thus far. So many of Buffalo’s issues being its own doing is especially concerning. It has turned the ball over four times through its first two games and struggled to find reliable offense with either the run or pass. Penn State is a much greater challenge, with a truly elite defense that will be eager to capitalize on Buffalo’s turnover issues. It is difficult to see a path to Buffalo putting any sort of notable scoring total on the board, with its second shutout of the season feeling well within reach.
On the other side of the matchup, the concerns over running the football are not sizable enough to be worried. Rocco Becht has looked more than capable of leading an offense and has yet to turn the ball over this season. There is a massive talent gap between these two rosters, and expect this to be fully put on display. Penn State has struggled to run the ball thus far, but this very well could be the matchup where this changes, and there is a pathway to a dominant win through the air that the game requires.
Penn State has cruised to a 2-0 start to the year, but it is still looking for a convincing victory to climb the rankings. This is a great chance to produce this, and the gap between these two rosters is even more significant than the spread indicates. The flaws in this Buffalo team are clear, and Penn State still has not played its best football. My lean is toward the under from a game total perspective, given the elite nature of the Nittany Lions’ defense and limited output from Buffalo. But I am expecting this matchup to get ugly early and for this to be the most convincing victory by Penn State so far this season.
