NFL Week 1 is in the books. After a couple of low scoring primetime games to open the season, we had a historical Week 1 when it came to putting points on the board. We also saw the largest favorite on the board lose outright, with the Cardinals taking down the Chargers, on a week that the favorites mostly rolled.
Let’s turn the page to Week 2 and breakdown some best bets. I’m putting this out on Wednesday morning and will add plays throughout the week, so be sure to check back for updates.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (Thursday 8:15pm ET)
The Bills and Lions both played roles in a historic Week 1 for scoring. Things got off to a slow start in Detroit, with the Lions leading the Saints 7-0 at halftime. Then the game completely opened up, tied 24-24 at the end of regulation and finishing 31-30 in favor of the home team. The Saints went for the win on a 2-point conversion, but failed.
The Bills went on the road to face a daunting defense in Houston, where Josh Allen had struggled throughout his career. Those struggles ended, putting up an impressive 36 points on the Texans, who many believe to be the NFL’s top defense. The Bills have had their defensive struggles too, though, and allowed 31 points to a Houston offense that was about league average last season.
Let’s piece that all together for the Bills opening up their new stadium in Buffalo on Thursday Night Football. We should see some fireworks in this one.
These two teams combined to score 67 points in their openers, while each defense gave up 30-plus points. It was pretty typical production for these offenses over recent seasons, so I think we can count on it to continue on Thursday in Buffalo. The Lions are off a 2025 season in which they averaged 28.3 PPG, after lighting it up for 33.1 PPG in 2024. The Bills averaged an identical 28.3 PPG last season, and were also over 30 PPG in 2024. Buffalo averaged 31.2 PPG when playing at home last season.
So will we see resistance from these defenses? We certainly did not in Week 1, and recent history tells us we will struggle to see stops on TNF. The Bills were slightly above average in scoring defense in 2025, but gave up 23.4 PPG at home. The Lions were in the bottom-third of the NFL in scoring defense last season, and gave up 25.4 PPG on the road.
With the strength on both sides clearly on the offensive side of the ball and a pair of pretty average defenses at best, look for a barn burner on Thursday night when the Bills open up the new Highmark Stadium in front of a juiced up crowd.
This one should be a public play, but I agree with where the money is going. The number has been ticking up since the preseason opener, and 73% of bets for 71% of the money have backed the over, as of Wednesday morning.
NFL Pick: OVER 53.5 (-120)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
Up 10-0 with Sam Darnold ruled out for the game, it looked like the Patriots were going to fall into an ugly Week 1 victory in Seattle. But the Seahawks fueled a comeback at home, and Drake Maye made critical mistakes in the fourth quarter to help it along — three interceptions, including the game-losing throw in the red zone with a chance to win the game on a touchdown, or force overtime on a field goal.
The Patriots also suffered a crucial injury on offense, with A.J. Brown spraining his ankle. The wide receiver will now be on the shelf for at least the next four games. New England’s offense lacked explosiveness, running the ball 31 times for just 3.5 yards per carry. Brown had three receptions prior to his injury, and newly acquired Romeo Doubs was held without a catch on three targets — including a brutal drop late in the game.
This offense will now be tasked with getting much more creative, and will have to do so without its best weapon. All that said, Seattle looked elite on defense, and things will only get easier for the Patriots in terms of matchups. Because New England played its opener on Wednesday, Mike Vrabel and his staff have four additional days to prepare for Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh was one of my top plays in Week 1 and got the job done for me. I initially backed the Steelers with the intentions of fading Tua Tagovailoa, but a back injury in practice prevented him from playing. Enter Cooper Rush, who was dreadful statistically, and failed to get the Falcons into the red zone on any drive.
Atlanta’s lone touchdown was all due to the greatness of Bijan Robinson, who bolted to the end zone on a screen pass. In fact, Robinson had eight receptions for 90 yards and a TD on 10 targets. If we remove to throws to the star running back, Rush went 4-of-12 passing for 53 yards and two interceptions.
Basically, the Steelers were not tested at all in Week 1. And the seven-point margin in the victory was created by a defensive touchdown, thanks to Rush. It was about as unimpressive of a Week 1 victory as you could ask for. Pittsburgh averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on the ground, and Aaron Rodgers was an inefficient 24-of-40 throwing the ball for just 5.5 yards per completion.
I expect the Patriots to have similar success on defense to a Falcons team that gave up just 13 points of offense in Pittsburgh, maybe even more. So can New England get the offense on track? I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt and say Josh McDaniels and company can bounce-back here.
The Pats will be looking for payback against the Steelers, who go a win in Foxborough last season. New England dominated the box score, but could not overcome five turnovers in a narrow loss. Look for the Pats to clean things up and look like the more prepared team at home in Week 2.
While 55% of the bets are grabbing the points with the Steelers, 68% of the handle has laid it with the Patriots in this one.
NFL Pick: NE -5.5 (-105)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
The Cardinals, who clearly don’t care about your survivor pick, came in and not only defeated the Chargers on the road in Week 1, but dominated them. Los Angeles was clearly sloppy and played poorly, but Arizona was also much better than expected. Jacoby Brissett was an efficient 27-of-37 for 277 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers, with Trey McBride shining as the featured target.
I don’t want to take anything away from how well the Cardinals played, but I am concerned the Chargers may not be all that good. Even if Jim Harbaugh gets his group to improve heading into Week 2, his team did not put up any resistance in the opener. The Cardinals will be playing a much more buttoned up operation this Sunday when the defending champs come to town.
We’ve seen a massive adjustment to the spread on this game. Prior to the start of the season, Seattle was priced as a double digit favorite in this one. Less than a week later, we’ve now seeing the Seahawks favored by just over a field goal. There are two crucial factors that go into the move. The first is how good Arizona looked in the upset victory. The second is that Sam Darnold has been ruled out for the game.
I think both of these are overreactions by the market. Sure, the Cardinals looked good with Justin Herbert turning the ball over and taking sacks, while the defense got carved up. Drew Lock was very solid in relief of Darnold, going 16-for-22 for 187 yards and a touchdown against a good New England defense. He took just one sack and did not turn the ball over.
I expect Lock to play his role once again in Arizona. While the Chargers seemed to abandon the run game in Week 1, I expect Seattle to lean on it in Week 2. Jadarian Price looked tremendous in his NFL debut, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He only saw the ball 10 times, and I expect more of the rookie this week.
The smooth operation by the Cardinals on offense was respectable, but should be difficult to duplicate. The Seahawks were stellar against New England’s passing attack, and should make life much more difficult on Brissett. Seattle also has the same mini-bye here, with four extra days to get Lock ready to make the start.
I think a well prepared and well coached Seahawks team will be ready to go on both sides of the ball in Week 2. I can’t pass up on this discount.
NFL Pick: SEA -3.5 (-115)
