Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s full slate: Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +553 | Not only did Vlad finally hit his first home run of the season at Rogers Centre on Sunday, but he’s sporting a 59.5% hard hit rate in the month with a top 10 average exit velocity (94.8). Meanwhile, Drew Anderson is surrendering 1.61 opponent home runs per nine away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Comerica Park. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +317 | Since hitting his first home run of the season on May 30, Tatis is slashing .300/.364/.546 with a .247 ISO and a .394 expected wOBA that is the fifth-highest qualified mark in MLB. Tatis will be looking for long ball No. 23 on Tuesday at Coors Field against Kyle Freeland. The veteran lefty will be fresh-off a month-long IL stint, and he’s surrendered a whopping 2.15 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs. |
| Pete Alonso | +304 | You want a narrative? How about so many narratives it’ll make your head spin? I assume Alonso would love nothing more than to supply the New York faithful with a long ball in his return to Citi Field — especially since it would be the 300th of his career. In 200 plate appearances against LHPs in 2026, the All-Star sports a 15.4% barrel rate and a 62.3% hard hit rate. Sean Manaea would be wise to tread carefully. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Home Run (+553)
Let’s start things off with a pick that, if you’ve watched any baseball in 2026, you’ll know is highly questionable. Everyone is aware of how poorly things have gone for Guerrero this season, as the $500 million slugger enters play on Tuesday with just nine home runs and a 97 wRC+ in 578 plate appearances. However, there’s been a few reasons for optimism so far in September. Not only did Vlad finally hit his first home run at Rogers Centre on Sunday, but he’s also sporting a 59.5% hard hit rate in the month with a top 10 average exit velocity (94.8). Meanwhile, Drew Anderson is surrendering 1.61 opponent home runs per nine away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Comerica Park. On top of that, he’s conceding a 10.1% barrel rate to opposing RHBs. Toronto needs Guerrero to get hot and this is a great matchup to do some damage.
Pete Alonso 1+ Home Run (+304)
You want a narrative? How about so many narratives it’ll make your head spin? Alonso went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return to Citi Field last night, though, at one point, he almost blew the roof off the place with a deep foul ball down the left field line. Mets fans are clearly pulling for their former star, and I assume Alonso would love nothing more than to supply the New York faithful with a long ball — especially since it would also be the 300th of his career. Specific to tonight’s matchup, Alonso draws the left-handed Sean Manaea. In 200 plate appearances against LHPs in 2026, the All-Star sports a 15.4% barrel rate and a 62.3% hard hit rate. On the other side, Manaea owns a fifth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.0%) and he’s surrendering 1.59 home runs per nine as a starter. It’s all lining up.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+317)
Tatis hit his 22nd home run of the season last night, which is even more impressive when you remember that the former All-Star didn’t manage his first long ball of 2026 until May 30. Since that day, Tatis is slashing .300/.364/.546 with a .247 ISO and a .394 expected wOBA that is the fifth-highest qualified mark in MLB. It’s also a span where his 55.5% hard hit rate is the fourth-highest figure in the league. Not too shabby at all. Tatis will be looking for No. 23 on Tuesday at Coors Field, and he’ll have a great chance to accomplish the feat off of Kyle Freeland. The veteran lefty will be fresh-off a month-long IL stint, and Freeland’s surrendered a whopping 2.15 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs in his 23 starts with the Rockies this year.
