We’re out of the FIBA World Cup break and ready for the last few games of the WNBA regular season. The Connecticut Sun are winding down their last season before moving to Houston, and these last few games are more about the fans and the goodbyes than anything. But the players will sure be playing hard and won’t let the playoff-bound Atlanta Dream roll them over.
The Dream enter as 14.5-point road favorites with -1200 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun are +750 underdogs, with the game total set at 169.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Sun-Dream matchup.
Sun vs. Dream Preview
This will be the third and final regular-season meeting between these two teams. Atlanta won the first matchup in June, 91-75, at home. Connecticut hoped for revenge in the second matchup but fell flat, losing 104-69 at home.
A familiar problem plagued the Sun during both matchups. In the first game, Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray scored 36 and 26 points, respectively, combining for 62 of Atlanta’s 91 points. While those two are exceptionally talented, that’s a ton of points to give up to one starting backcourt. Things didn’t get better in the blowout home loss, where Howard and Gray each scored 29 points. Point-of-attack defense problems have dogged the Sun all year long; if they want to win this one, that has to improve.
Atlanta, of course, would love to get a third beatdown from the backcourt. But the key here is Angel Reese. Connecticut is dead last in three-point rate and takes more two-pointers than any other team. At the same time, the Sun are dead last in efficiency inside the arc. Reese will have a lot of shots to contest and rebounds to grab, the two things she is best at. You can’t take these kinds of matchups for granted when they play right to your strengths.
One big thing to watch here is the injury report after the break. Kennedy Burke has already been ruled out for the season, and the injury woes don’t stop there for the Sun. Leila Lacan, Brittney Griner, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, and Rayah Marshall were all dealing with injuries heading into the FIBA break. Those first two in particular are key; Lacan’s playmaking and point-of-attack defense help address two of their biggest flaws, while Griner is their only true big with two-way talent. If one or both of them are out for this game, they can kiss their upset hopes goodbye.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Sun vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
It’s very difficult to see a world where the Dream lose this one. Connecticut won’t be taking any chances with their injuries, and with a top spot in the lottery within their grasp, the motivation to win this one is largely absent. 15 points is a lot in such a talented league, but the Dream will fight like hell to put this one away early and get rest for key players. I expect a blowout to be secured by the third quarter.
