Since Patrick Mahomes became a full-time starter in Kansas City, the Chiefs racked up seven straight double-digit win seasons with five Super Bowl appearances and three Lombardi hoists. Ho hum. But since Mahomes lit up the league for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2022, defensive coordinators said No Mas, and started making him matriculate up and down the field. The touchdown totals then went to 27 and 26. Last season, things hit rock bottom as Mahomes suffered an injury while the Chiefs finished 6-11, the first sub-.500 season since 2012.
The Denver Broncos happily filled the void, winning 14 games and the AFC West for the first time since 2015, when Denver won the Super Bowl. But this was no outlier, as the Broncos have steadily been building towards this. Sean Payton took over a 5-12 team, improved to 8-9 his first season and then guided the Broncos to 10 wins and the first winning season and playoff appearance since that glorious 2015 season.
Will the Broncos close the entrance gate to the AFC West penthouse while bolstering the security? Or will the Chiefs go vintage and reclaim their former glory?
We know that Payton is an offensive savant, and he has his franchise quarterback. Bo Nix was solid his rookie season, managing the game while completing 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Last season, the completion percentage fell to 63.4% but the yardage increased to 3,931 while he finished with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Nix took the fewest sacks in the league (22) while adding 356 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Denver traded for Jaylen Waddle and the third-year quarterback could be poised for a breakout, as Payton puts more on his plate.
But it’s the defense that is truly special.
The 311 points allowed were the third-fewest. The unit was second in pressure rate while the 68 sacks were the most by a wide margin. The 3,182 passing yards allowed were the fifth-fewest while the 1,548 rushing yards were the second-least. The Broncos were one of only five teams to allow fewer than 4.0 yards per carry.
Denver has built a solid foundation, but the moat around the castle may be the reason they maintain dominance in the AFC West.
We can never count out Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, though. Since Mahomes is coming off a knee injury, the rushing prowess will likely dissipate. Since 2020, Mahomes rushed for over 300 yards in six straight seasons, culminating in a career-high 422 yards last season with five touchdowns. With that aspect of his game likely nerfed, and defenses continuing to employ cloud coverage concepts, the Chiefs went out and acquired Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III.
Kansas City has been top 10 in pass rate in every season since Mahomes became the starter. There’s a good chance the Chiefs drop to the teens this season, as the run game takes more precedence.
The Chiefs defense may not be on the level of the Broncos, but the unit is also very good. Kansas City allowed 4.0 yards per carry and allowed the ninth-fewest yards. The 18 passing touchdowns allowed were the fourth-fewest. Kansas City blitzed at the third-highest rate, but was only 13th in pressure rate while the 35 sacks were tied for the fifth-fewest. That said, the 75 missed tackles were the second-fewest.
Denver won both regular season meetings against Kansas City last season. 22-19 in Week 11 at home and then 20-13 in Week 17 on the road.
DraftKings Sportsbook has KC -2.5 over DEN with the total at 43.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DEN @ KC)
Broncos vs. Chiefs DraftKings Showdown Captain’s Picks
Bo Nix ($14,700 CP): I’m not expecting a shootout in this one. Both run defenses are stout and, if points are going to be scored, they will likely come from the quarterbacks. I’m bullish on the prospects for Nix in his third season and think Payton unleashes him now. In addition, Nix also has some rushing prowess. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Nix rushed for 430 and 356 yards with four and five touchdowns.
Best UTIL Plays for Broncos vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes ($9,600): The conventional wisdom will likely be that the Chiefs ground and pound, especially with Mahomes returning from injury. I think the Chiefs will try and run the ball, but Denver is very stout in run defense and utilized man defense at the second-highest rate. Running gaps will be closed while there could be some opportunities in the pass game. The corners are excellent for the Broncos and, while Travis Kelce is up in age and diminished in skills, he can still get open against man defense. In addition, I do think the Broncos put up some points in this one, which would force the Chiefs to be aggressive on offense.
Jaylen Waddle ($9,000): The new number one receiver in Denver should be busy in this one, as I’m liking Payton to allow Nix to do his thing. In his career, Waddle has garnered at least 100 targets four times while exceeding 1,000 yards three times.
Evan Engram ($3,400): Engram plays fewer snaps than Adam Trautman, but he garnered over three times as many targets last season. Engram caught 50 of 76 targets for 461 yards and a touchdown. He has also received 11 red zone targets.
Broncos vs. Chiefs DFS Fades
Kenneth Walker III ($10,600): Can’t fit everyone. If my story is that things happen in the passing game with both run games being neutered, then it makes sense to put Walker here, especially since he’s the most expensive player on the slate. If you think Walker will have a big game, then pair him with the Chiefs DST and possibly Harrison Butker.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
I’m not expecting many points to be scored in this one but I do think both sides will score at least two touchdowns. As mentioned above, both defenses are very good at run defense and I think Nix shows that a third-year leap is well within the range of outcomes.
Final Score: Broncos 24, Chiefs 20
