Major League Baseball has 15 games on the scoreboard this Saturday with all 30 teams on the schedule. Six games start at 6:00 p.m. ET or later after the bulk of the action is in the afternoon. With games spread throughout the day, baseball is on all day, filling up the Saturday with plenty of hardball. Looking through the options on the board, there are plenty of strong home run props to consider. Looking at the matchups, game environment and current form of the hitters’ props available, my top three home run props for this Saturday are all from lefties with good momentum against pitchers who have been mashable by left-handed hitters. Jake Bauers, Alec Burleson and Lawrence Butler are my favorite places to look for home run props this Saturday.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | Brewers | Bauers has 2 HR in his last four games and four in his last 20 to reach 25 homers for the season. He’ll face Brady Singer, who has allowed 27 homers in 28 starts with lefties like Bauers raking against him all season. |
| Alec Burleson | Cardinals | Burleson is 9-for-27 (.333) with a home run, a .419 wOBA and a 13.6% barrel rate in his last seven games. He’ll take on Luis Castillo, who has allowed 24 homers this year, including seven in his last four starts. |
| Lawrence Butler | Athletics | Over his last 30 games, Butler is hitting .304 with 7 of his 14 homers this season, a .391 wOBA and a 10.4% barrel rate. Bryan Woo is a tougher matchup but has had his issues on the road this year and against lefties like Butler. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Jake Bauers to Hit a Home Run (+341)
Bauers and the Brewers clinched a playoff spot with a big win on Friday, cruising to a 20-0 rout of the Reds at American Family Field. Bauers hit one of the team’s four home runs in that victory, giving him 25 homers on the year.
Bauers has had a breakout season, and his 25 homers more than double his previous career high. He has hit 18 of his 25 homers against righties and 14 of them at home. He has homered twice in his last four games and four times in his last 20 games with a 56.3% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate.
In his career, Bauers is only 1-for-10 against Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer, but that one hit was a home run. Singer has been a great matchup to attack for home run props this season, allowing 27 homers in 28 starts. He has a 5.67 ERA and 13 homers against him in 13 games on the road. Lefties like Bauers have done most of the damage, with 20 of the 27 homers he has allowed, a .379 wOBA and a 10.1% barrel rate against Singer.
Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+454)
Burleson is another lefty having the best power year of his career. He is up to 22 homers on the year after going yard against the Giants earlier this week.
Burleson has also reached 100 RBIs for the first time in his career this season, helping the Cardinals exceed expectations this season. Burleson is tied for the team lead with seven homers since the All-Star break, and he has been heating up over the last week, going 9-for-27 (.333) with a .419 wOBA in his last seven games. Burleson has a 50% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate in that short span.
He’ll face Luis Castillo as the Cardinals look to get a second straight win over the White Sox. Castillo was expected to help the White Sox rotation after coming over from the Mariners at the trade deadline, but he has a 7.52 ERA and 6.44 FIP in his six starts since the trade. Castillo has given up eight homers in those six games and 24 homers in his 23 games overall this season. Like with Singer, lefties have been able to get most of the hard contact against him this season. Lefties have hit .288 with a .377 wOBA, an 11.5% barrel rate and 16 of the 24 homers against him this year.
Burleson will be on the strong side of his splits and Castillo’s splits, so he should be another lefty with good potential to deliver a win on his home run props on Saturday night.
Lawrence Butler to Hit a Home Run (+428)
The Athletics and Mariners close out the Saturday schedule with a contest at homer-friendly Sutter Health Park. The A’s will be facing Bryan Woo for a second straight start after Woo shut them down, allowing only one hit in eight innings in Seattle last Sunday. Woo’s splits, though, indicate he’s a much better matchup to attack for home run props when he’s pitching on the road. Away from T-Mobile Park, Woo has a 5.36 ERA (compared to just a 2.36 ERA at home). He has allowed 12 homers in 15 road starts and lefties have 12 of the 18 homers against him this season.
The Athletics’ lineup is missing several of its key power bats coming to the end of the season, but Butler is one player who has picked up the slack over the last few weeks. He homered on Friday to help the A’s get the win in the series opener, and he now has 14 long balls on the season.
Butler is hitting .304 with a .391 wOBA and 10.4% barrel rate over his last 30 games. He has hit seven of his homers during that 30-game span, and he has been able to put a disappointing start to the season behind him. Of Butler’s 14 homers, 12 have been at home and 10 have been against righties.
With his current momentum, the homer-happy environment and the splits on his side, Butler is a great value to target at over 4:1 odds, even though the matchup against Woo isn’t ideal. Butler is only 2-for-24 in his career against Woo, but one of those hits was a home run.
