The first NFL Sunday of the season is here. The player prop market is full of different ways to get in on the action.
Without further ado, here are three of the best player props for NFL Week 1, including Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery and Omarion Hampton.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets and Picks for Week 1
David Montgomery Anytime TD (-120)
David Montgomery has found a new home in Houston. The Lions’ “Sonic and Knuckles” duo in the backfield was one of the best in the league over the past few years. However, Montgomery was always second fiddle to Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit. He was always productive, especially in the red zone, but now he has the chance to be the RB1 for the Texans. Over the past three seasons, Montgomery has scored 33 touchdowns on the ground, despite being in that backup role. Now, he should get almost all of the touches when Houston is in the scoring area.
The Bills had an awful run defense last season. They ranked 31st in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush and 25th in defensive rushing success rate. This Houston team has struggled with pass protection over the past couple of seasons, so it should try to take advantage of that poor run defense and get the ball to Montgomery whenever possible. David Montgomery should start his Houston tenure with a touchdown.
Garrett Wilson 6+ Receptions (-121)
During the offseason, new Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich described Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall as the Jets’ “bell cows.” The Jets aren’t a great team, but they know they have two very reliable and dangerous weapons in Wilson and Hall. To make things easy on Geno Smith, Reich will want to scheme ways to get the ball to those two players as often as possible. Wilson dealt with an injury that kept him out for most of last season, but in the first six games of the season when he was fit, Wilson had at least six catches in four of those six games.
Geno Smith did not have a good season in Las Vegas, but he had a terrible offensive line and a bad group of skill position players. He might not get back to the guy he was in Seattle, but he should have a much better season with an underrated Jets offensive line protecting him. Smith might have turnover issues, but he is not afraid to let it fly. Since the start of the 2022 season, he ranks fourth in the NFL in pass attempts.
This Titans defense is very vulnerable, and Frank Reich should let Geno Smith chuck it early and often in this game. Last season, the Titans ranked 29th in the NFL in defensive EPA/pass and 26th in dropback success rate. This is a good early matchup for Smith to get his feet under him in a Jets uniform (for the second time) and feed his WR1 Garrett Wilson.
Omarion Hampton Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
This should be a big season for Omarion Hampton. He only played nine games in his rookie season for the Chargers, but he is set for a huge role in what should be a productive Los Angeles offense. This is a good matchup for him to start the season against the Cardinals. Last season, Arizona ranked 22nd in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush and 23rd in defensive rushing success rate. That defense has a lot of young, inexperienced pieces and should struggle again this season.
The Chargers should feed the ball to Hampton early and often to control the game against Arizona. The Chargers are also big favorites and should lead this game down the stretch. That should lead to a lot of carries for Hampton down the stretch while the Chargers put the game on ice.
