Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Week 2’s Friday night primetime game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Missouri Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Kansas vs. Missouri player props
Austin Simmons o227.5 total passing yards (-115)
Of the 252 yards Austin Simmons threw for against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 199 came on passes which traveled at least 10 yards downfield. That takes some of the context out of citing an FCS opener: Missouri let its new quarterback attack, and his 11.6-yard average depth of target tells us how far offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey was willing to extend the assignment. Expecting another 89.5% completion rate would be a particularly foolhardy kind of expensive enthusiasm, but there’s repeatable production here, I think.
LT Cayden Green is expected back on the line, so Simmons should mercifully have more time to let some crisp routes develop. Chip Lindsey also schemed a lot of orbit motion with play-action against Pine Bluff, drawing defenders toward the run before WR Donovan Olugbode broke into space. With Kansas linebacker Bam Crouch doubtful, it’ll be a reserve linebacker inherting that nightmare assignment.
At 30 attempts, Simmons needs just around 7.6 yards per throw to clear 227.5. Kansas catching 5.5 points leaves room for four quarters of work. I think he’ll easily have 30+ attempts tonight. Missouri can afford a considerably less immaculate performance from its quarterback, and so too can our ticket here.
Yasin Willis o51.5 total rushing yards (+100)
Eleven carries makes Yasin Willis sound like a committee back, until you notice that all 11 came before halftime, when Kansas went into the break leading LIU 30-0. Willis had 72 yards, two touchdowns, and simply earned the rest of the night off. Dylan Edwards will get plenty of work, but Willis handled 11 of Kansas’ 19 first-half handoffs to running backs. That’s a 58% share of the load before the blowout made everyone’s usage look flattened, confusingly broad in scope.
Nine of his 11 runs qualified as successful by down-and-distance, an 81.8% rate; even without the 20-yarder, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Missouri’s starters allowed Pine Bluff 19 yards on 11 rushes, which ought to end any thought of simply carrying Willis’ 6.5 average into Friday.
At 51.5, though, just 16 carries at, say, 3.3 yards apiece would clear it. QB Isaiah Marshall’s threat to keep the ball should discourage Missouri’s edge defenders from immediately chasing Willis inside, so he’ll always get an advantage or two on an option play. I expect Kansas to give its lead back enough work to absorb a few unproductive possessions, and potentially blow by this line even at a low YPC figure come final whistle.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
