Man, Brock Bowers was supposed to spare fantasy managers this sort of Wednesday afternoon. Instead, he had a surprise meniscus trim earlier this week which will cost him “a game or two,” according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Michael Mayer is the obvious place to look for a replacement at tight end. I’m also interested in what those missing targets mean for Tre Tucker, with Miami visiting Las Vegas on Sunday.
Below, I get into Tucker’s potential fantasy production in the Weeks Bowers is expected to miss.
Tre Tucker Week 1 fantasy outlook
Tucker caught 57 passes for 696 yards and five touchdowns last season despite inconsistent quarterback personnel and play. He also played 94.9% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, the highest share among NFL receivers. Bowers’ absence therefore creates an opportunity for more targets rather than substantially more playing time.
His Week 1 opponent, the Miami Dolphins, pave the way for plenty of receiving work. Opposing quarterbacks completed 72% of their passes against the Dolphins last season, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. Miami also allowed 29 passing touchdowns. Jeff Hafley has taken over as head coach, so last year’s results aren’t a forecast. Still, JuJu Brents and Jason Marshall Jr. form an outside cornerback pairing I’m comfortable testing with Tucker’s speed.
Bowers commanded 86 targets in just 12 appearances last season, which helps explain why this changes the receiving outlook. Those throws won’t all go to Tucker. Mayer offers the closest positional replacement, while Jalen Nailor brings familiarity with starting quarterback Kirk Cousins from their time in Minnesota. I expect Kubiak to spread the work around, but Tucker will absorb some of what Bowers is leaving behind.
There is still risk in starting him. Tucker caught eight passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns against Washington last September. That game accounted for 60% of his receiving touchdowns for the season. Across his other 16 games, he averaged 34.4 receiving yards. He’s inconsistent at best.
Verdict: Start Tre Tucker in Week 1
For managers choosing between Tucker and another receiver with an uncertain target count, I’d lean toward Tucker this week. He has an established role, a favorable opponent, and a reasonable chance at additional work. That supports a start in deeper lineups. I wouldn’t assume two weeks without Bowers permanently changes his season-long value. Once Bowers returns, Tucker will need to show that Cousins and Kubiak still want him involved at the same higher rate.
